- Arsenal is a -1.5-goal favorite against Manchester United.
- Arsenal has won two straight against United, including 3-1 home win this season.
- Why bettors should expect the Arsenal attack to run rampant.
It’s the marquee match of this Premier League weekend as Arsenal head north to Old Trafford to face Manchester United.
Arsenal have won four league matches on the bounce and have kept three clean sheets.
Conversely, United have won only two matches since March and lost 4-0 on Monday to Crystal Palace.
The last time these sides met, Arsenal bossed United 3-1 at home, their second consecutive win against United. Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for the second meeting.
EPL Betting Odds – Arsenal vs. Manchester United
- Arsenal Moneyline: -250
- Manchester United Moneyline: +575
- Draw Moneyline: +425
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-110/-125)
Premier League Prediction – Arsenal vs. Manchester United
Two-Leg ML Parlay: Newcastle United & Arsenal (+115) | Arsenal Team Total Over 2.5 Goals (+100)
To close the loop on my Newcastle vs. Brighton Prediction, I love using Arsenal as a parlay piece this week.
Two systems lead me to make that claim.
First is that over the last three seasons, road favorites off a multi-goal win as favorites that won the previous head-to-head meeting are 54-24 SU.
Additionally, dogs off a loss by three or more goals are 0-44 SU against the three-way moneyline, assuming their opponent won by three or more in their last game.
In theory, United could eke out a draw on Sunday, but they’ll have to do it against an Arsenal team that’s 23-6 SU as a favorite this season.
From there, I’ll add the Arsenal team total against a vulnerable United defense.
United’s three preferred central defenders — Harry Maguire, Lisandro Martinez and Raphael Varane — all remain sidelined with injuries, as does left-back Luke Shaw.
That will put them in trouble against Arsenal, who created 2.3 expected goals in the reverse fixture and scored three times.
United has also looked vulnerable of late against weaker attacks. Since March, United has played nine league matches and surrendered 2.32 expected goals per 90 minutes.
In those nine matches, five have cleared three expected goals.
Sample five matches this season against Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City and bettors will find three of five cleared this number with United allowing 3.1 xG per 90 minutes.
Although that sample includes two penalty kicks, this is still a United team that allowed 1.7 xG to Crystal Palace on Monday.
Arsenal have cleared this number in all five matches against teams 15th or worse in npxGA per 90 minutes, so I’ll back them to do it against the 16th-ranked side.
Arsenal Form
May 4 vs. Bournemouth: 3-0, W
April 28 at Tottenham: 3-2, W
April 23 vs. Chelsea: 5-0, W
April 20 at Wolves: 2-0, W
April 17 at Bayern Munich: 0-1, L (Champions League)
Manchester United Form
May 6 at Crystal Palace: 0-4, L
April 27 vs. Burnley: 1-1, D
April 24 vs. Sheffield United: 4-2, W
April 21 vs. Coventry City: 3-3, D (FA Cup)
April 13 at Bournemouth: 2-2, D
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Chelsea | Everton | Apr. 26 | 7:30 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Southampton | Fulham | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Brighton | West Ham United | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Newcastle United | Ipswich Town | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Wolves | Leicester City | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Molinneux |
| Bournemouth | Manchester United | Apr. 27 | 9 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Liverpool | Tottenham | Apr. 27 | 11:30 a.m. | Anfield |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 24-7-2 | 79 | 44 |
| Arsenal | 18-13-3 | 68 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 18-7-9 | 61 | 23 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-6-9 | 60 | 14 |
| Newcastle United | 18-5-10 | 59 | 18 |
| Chelsea | 16-9-8 | 57 | 18 |
| Aston Villa | 16-9-9 | 57 | 5 |
| Bournemouth | 13-10-10 | 49 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-11 | 48 | 3 |
| Brighton | 12-13-8 | 48 | 0 |
| Brentford | 13-7-13 | 46 | 6 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-12-11 | 45 | -4 |
| Everton | 8-14-11 | 38 | -6 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-15 | 38 | -8 |
| Wolves | 11-5-17 | 38 | -13 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-18 | 37 | 10 |
| West Ham | 9-9-15 | 36 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-20 | 21 | -38 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-23 | 18 | -46 |
| Southampton | 2-5-26 | 11 | -54 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-16-6 | 44.1% | 4-9-4 | 35.3% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 7-9-1 | 44.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-2 | 57.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-2 | 64.7% |
| Brentford | 20-11-2 | 63.6% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 12-19-2 | 39.4% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 7-6-4 | 52.9% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Everton | 17-11-5 | 59.1% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-12-3 | 5.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-18-2 | 42.4% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 15-17-1 | 47.0% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-16-2 | 48.5% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-8-0 | 52.9% |
| Manchester City | 12-22-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-16-4 | 45.5% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 19-13-1 | 59.1% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 21-12-0 | 63.6% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Southampton | 12-18-3 | 40.9% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-20-1 | 37.9% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 17-13-3 | 56.1% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
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