- Manchester United is predicted to be a -1.5-goal favorite against Fulham.
- Fulham captured a 2-1 win in the last meeting at Old Trafford.
- I predict Fulham will cover the spread for the second straight meeting.
To kick off the 2024-25 Premier League season, Manchester United welcome Fulham to Old Trafford.
The Red Devils experienced mixed results against the Cottagers last year. They captured a 1-0 road win at Craven Cottage but fell 2-1 at home to Marco Silva’s side.
The same can be said of United’s preseason efforts. They fell to Arsenal and Liverpool stateside, but they took Manchester City to penalty kicks in the Community Shield.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Friday’s fixture.
Manchester United vs. Fulham Odds, Premier League
- Manchester United Moneyline: -185
- Fulham Moneyline: +425
- Draw Moneyline: +350
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+110/-155)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-185), No (+125)
Manchester United vs. Fulham Prediction: Game Spread and Moneyline
I predict Fulham will cover the spread (+1.5, -190) and are worth a shot on the moneyline (+425) at Old Trafford.
A general rule of thumb for early Premier League betting: underdogs that won the previous head-to-head meeting generally don’t get blown out in the next.
Since the 2012-13 EPL season, August road dogs that won the previous meeting are 24-7-7 ATS. When they earned a result, they’re still 64.7% ATS.
The kicker? Those underdogs are also 15-23 SU against the three-way moneyline and have dropped all three points only eight times.
On all eight of those occasions, the favorite closed at -315 or higher.
Plus, it has historically paid off to bet big underdogs early and late.
Since 2012-13, road dogs priced at +1.5 or +2 in August or May are 68.4% ATS, including 72.1% ATS in August.
Even if you set all those trends aside, this remains a Fulham side that has produced strong efforts against Manchester United.
Since rejoining the top flight in 2021, Fulham has stayed within a goal in seven of eight meetings with United.
The only occasion on which they failed to do so came in an FA Cup meeting where Fulham went down a man after earning a 1-0 lead.
Lastly, Manchester United won’t have striker Rasmus Hojlund for Friday’s match.
Amongst all United players with at least 25 matches played last year, Hojlund led the team in expected goals per 90 minutes.
For those reasons, I’ll back the visitors to stay within a goal on Friday.
Manchester United Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 10 vs. Man City: 1-1, D (City win on PK’s)
- Aug. 3 vs. Liverpool: 0-3, L (Friendly)
- July 31 vs. Real Betis: 3-2, W (Friendly)
- July 27 vs. Arsenal: 1-2, L (Friendly)
- July 20 vs. Rangers: 2-0, W (Friendly)
Fulham Record, Last 3 Matches
- August 10 vs. Hoffenheim: 2-0, W (Friendly)
- Aug. 5 vs. Sevilla: 1-2, L (Friendly)
- Aug. 2 at Benfica: 1-0, W (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Manchester United odds and Fulham odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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