Liverpool vs. Manchester United Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

min read
Manchester United's Marcus Rashford applauds at the end of EFL Cup fourth round soccer match between Manchester United and Newcastle at Old Trafford stadium in Manchester, England, Wednesday, Nov. 1, 2023.
(Dave Thompson/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 04, 2024, 5:29 PM
  • Liverpool is a -0.5-goal favorite against Manchester United.
  • Two previous meetings this season have ended radically differently.
  • Why bettors should look at the total for Sunday’s match.

It’s the marquee Premier League match this weekend as Manchester United welcomes Liverpool to Old Trafford. 

This season, these sides have played two matches against one another – once in the FA Cup at Old Trafford and another in the league at Anfield. 

The former ended 4-3 in United’s favor after the match advanced to extra time while the Anfield fixture produced a 0-0 snoozer. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Liverpool vs. Manchester United

  • Liverpool Moneyline: -145
  • Manchester United Moneyline: +320
  • Draw Moneyline: +340
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-120/-120)

EPL Prediction – Liverpool vs. Manchester United

Total Over 3.5 Goals (-120) 

Don’t let the 0-0 result influence your thinking for this match – it’s one ripe for goals. 

When these sides last played at Old Trafford, there were 42 shots in the first 90 minutes plus injury time, 18 of which found the target. 

Take away the underlying data from injury time and bettors will find this match justifiably finished over 3.5 in regular time. 

As home underdogs, United created 3.05 post shot expected goals and 2.84 expected goals, per fotmob.com. 

However, they simultaneously allowed Liverpool to run rampant. Manager Jurgen Klopp’s side created 2.12 xG and 3.6 psxG in the first two halves. 

That marks the second straight match in which Liverpool created more than two xG against Manchester United’s defense, which is quite vulnerable. 

Entering Thursday’s game against Chelsea, manager Erik ten Hag’s side has surrendered 1.67 non-penalty xG per 90, the third-worst mark in the Premier League. 

Sample seven league games against sides fifth or better in the corresponding offensive category and bettors will find they’ve allowed 2.37 npxG per 90, per fbref.com. 

I expect Liverpool will contribute a lion’s share of the scoring, but the fact United just produced two goals off 2.84 expected is enough for me to expect goals at home. 

History also suggests there will be goals in this fixture at Old Trafford. 

All but one of the last four meetings at Old Trafford have cleared 3.5 goals, with those four games averaging 3.67 expected goals per 90. 

Finally, Premier League matches this season are 61.5% to the over in matches featuring a home dog.

Liverpool Form 

April 4 vs. Sheffield United: 3-1, W

March 17 at Manchester United: 3-4, L (FA Cup, AET)

March 14 vs. Sparta Prague: 6-1, W (Europa League)

March 10 vs. Man City: 1-1, D

March 7 at Sparta Prague: 5-1, W (Europa League)

Manchester United Form

April 4 at Chelsea: 3-4, L

March 30 at Brentford: 1-1, D

March 17 vs. Liverpool: 4-3, W (FA Cup, AET)

March 9 vs. Everton: 2-0, W

March 3 at Man City: 1-3, L

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Newcastle UnitedManchester CitySep. 287:30 a.m.St. James' Park
ArsenalLeicester CitySep. 2810 a.m.Emirates Stadium
BrentfordWest Ham UnitedSep. 2810 a.m.GTech Community Stadium
ChelseaBrighton & Hove AlbionSep. 2810 a.m.Stamford Bridge
EvertonCrystal PalaceSep. 2810 a.m.Goodison Park
Nottingham ForestFulhamSep. 2810 a.m.The City Ground
WolvesLiverpoolSep. 2812:30 p.m.Molineux
Ipswich TownAston VillaSep. 299 a.m.Portman Road
Manchester UnitedTottenhamSep. 2911:30 a.m.Old Trafford
BournemouthSouthamptonSep. 303 p.m. Vitality Stadium

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal Differential
Manchester City4-1-0138
Liverpool4-0-1129
Aston Villa4-0-1123
Arsenal3-2-0115
Chelsea3-1-1106
Newcastle United3-1-1101
Brighton & Hove Albion2-3-094
Nottingham Forest2-3-092
Fulham2-2-182
Tottenham Hotspur2-1-274
Manchester United2-1-270
Brentford2-0-36-2
Bournemouth1-2-25-3
West Ham United1-1-34-4
Leicester City0-3-23-2
Crystal Palace0-3-23-3
Ipswich Town0-3-23-5
Southampton0-1-41-7
Everton0-1-41-9
Wolverhampton Wanderers0-1-41-9

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Aston Villa4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Bournemouth3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Brentford3-2-0.6002-0-01.0001-2-0.333
Brighton & Hove Albion3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Chelsea3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Crystal Palace2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Everton1-4-0.2000-2-0.0001-2-0.333
Fulham2-3-0.4002-1-0.6670-2-0.000
Ipswich Town3-2-0.6001-1-0.5002-1-0.667
Leicester City2-3-0.4001-2-0.3331-1-0.500
Liverpool4-1-0.8002-1-0.6672-0-01.000
Manchester City3-2-0.6001-2-0.3332-0-01.000
Manchester United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Newcastle United2-3-0.4001-1-0.5001-2-0.333
Nottingham Forest3-2-0.6000-2-0.0003-0-01.000
Southampton1-4-0.2000-3-0.0001-1-0.500
Tottenham Hotspur2-3-0.4002-1-0.5000-2-0.000
West Ham United2-3-0.4000-3-0.0002-0-01.000
Wolverhampton Wanderers2-3-0.4000-2-0.0002-1-0.667

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.