Liverpool vs. Manchester United Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

min read
Manchester United's Marcus Rashford applauds at the end of EFL Cup fourth round soccer match between Manchester United and Newcastle at Old Trafford stadium in Manchester, England, Wednesday, Nov. 1, 2023.
(Dave Thompson/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Apr 04, 2024, 5:29 PM
  • Liverpool is a -0.5-goal favorite against Manchester United.
  • Two previous meetings this season have ended radically differently.
  • Why bettors should look at the total for Sunday’s match.

It’s the marquee Premier League match this weekend as Manchester United welcomes Liverpool to Old Trafford. 

This season, these sides have played two matches against one another – once in the FA Cup at Old Trafford and another in the league at Anfield. 

The former ended 4-3 in United’s favor after the match advanced to extra time while the Anfield fixture produced a 0-0 snoozer. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Liverpool vs. Manchester United

  • Liverpool Moneyline: -145
  • Manchester United Moneyline: +320
  • Draw Moneyline: +340
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-120/-120)

EPL Prediction – Liverpool vs. Manchester United

Total Over 3.5 Goals (-120) 

Don’t let the 0-0 result influence your thinking for this match – it’s one ripe for goals. 

When these sides last played at Old Trafford, there were 42 shots in the first 90 minutes plus injury time, 18 of which found the target. 

Take away the underlying data from injury time and bettors will find this match justifiably finished over 3.5 in regular time. 

As home underdogs, United created 3.05 post shot expected goals and 2.84 expected goals, per 

However, they simultaneously allowed Liverpool to run rampant. Manager Jurgen Klopp’s side created 2.12 xG and 3.6 psxG in the first two halves. 

That marks the second straight match in which Liverpool created more than two xG against Manchester United’s defense, which is quite vulnerable. 

Entering Thursday’s game against Chelsea, manager Erik ten Hag’s side has surrendered 1.67 non-penalty xG per 90, the third-worst mark in the Premier League. 

Sample seven league games against sides fifth or better in the corresponding offensive category and bettors will find they’ve allowed 2.37 npxG per 90, per 

I expect Liverpool will contribute a lion’s share of the scoring, but the fact United just produced two goals off 2.84 expected is enough for me to expect goals at home. 

History also suggests there will be goals in this fixture at Old Trafford. 

All but one of the last four meetings at Old Trafford have cleared 3.5 goals, with those four games averaging 3.67 expected goals per 90. 

Finally, Premier League matches this season are 61.5% to the over in matches featuring a home dog.

Liverpool Form 

April 4 vs. Sheffield United: 3-1, W

March 17 at Manchester United: 3-4, L (FA Cup, AET)

March 14 vs. Sparta Prague: 6-1, W (Europa League)

March 10 vs. Man City: 1-1, D

March 7 at Sparta Prague: 5-1, W (Europa League)

Manchester United Form

April 4 at Chelsea: 3-4, L

March 30 at Brentford: 1-1, D

March 17 vs. Liverpool: 4-3, W (FA Cup, AET)

March 9 vs. Everton: 2-0, W

March 3 at Man City: 1-3, L

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.