- Liverpool is a -0.5-goal favorite against Manchester United.
- Two previous meetings this season have ended radically differently.
- Why bettors should look at the total for Sunday’s match.
It’s the marquee Premier League match this weekend as Manchester United welcomes Liverpool to Old Trafford.
This season, these sides have played two matches against one another – once in the FA Cup at Old Trafford and another in the league at Anfield.
The former ended 4-3 in United’s favor after the match advanced to extra time while the Anfield fixture produced a 0-0 snoozer.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Sunday’s match.
EPL Betting Odds – Liverpool vs. Manchester United
- Liverpool Moneyline: -145
- Manchester United Moneyline: +320
- Draw Moneyline: +340
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-120/-120)
EPL Prediction – Liverpool vs. Manchester United
Total Over 3.5 Goals (-120)
Don’t let the 0-0 result influence your thinking for this match – it’s one ripe for goals.
When these sides last played at Old Trafford, there were 42 shots in the first 90 minutes plus injury time, 18 of which found the target.
Take away the underlying data from injury time and bettors will find this match justifiably finished over 3.5 in regular time.
As home underdogs, United created 3.05 post shot expected goals and 2.84 expected goals, per fotmob.com.
However, they simultaneously allowed Liverpool to run rampant. Manager Jurgen Klopp’s side created 2.12 xG and 3.6 psxG in the first two halves.
That marks the second straight match in which Liverpool created more than two xG against Manchester United’s defense, which is quite vulnerable.
Entering Thursday’s game against Chelsea, manager Erik ten Hag’s side has surrendered 1.67 non-penalty xG per 90, the third-worst mark in the Premier League.
Sample seven league games against sides fifth or better in the corresponding offensive category and bettors will find they’ve allowed 2.37 npxG per 90, per fbref.com.
I expect Liverpool will contribute a lion’s share of the scoring, but the fact United just produced two goals off 2.84 expected is enough for me to expect goals at home.
History also suggests there will be goals in this fixture at Old Trafford.
All but one of the last four meetings at Old Trafford have cleared 3.5 goals, with those four games averaging 3.67 expected goals per 90.
Finally, Premier League matches this season are 61.5% to the over in matches featuring a home dog.
Liverpool Form
April 4 vs. Sheffield United: 3-1, W
March 17 at Manchester United: 3-4, L (FA Cup, AET)
March 14 vs. Sparta Prague: 6-1, W (Europa League)
March 10 vs. Man City: 1-1, D
March 7 at Sparta Prague: 5-1, W (Europa League)
Manchester United Form
April 4 at Chelsea: 3-4, L
March 30 at Brentford: 1-1, D
March 17 vs. Liverpool: 4-3, W (FA Cup, AET)
March 9 vs. Everton: 2-0, W
March 3 at Man City: 1-3, L
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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