- Arsenal is a -0.5 goal favorite against Newcastle United.
- Arsenal are unbeaten in their last four matches.
- Goals have come at a premium in past head-to-head meetings.
It’s the marquee fixture of this weekend’s Premier League slate, and I’m set to provide a Newcastle United vs. Arsenal prediction.
Arsenal enter this match unbeaten in Premier League play this season. The Gooners sit second in the Premier League table and beat Sheffield United 5-0 last weekend.
Newcastle United sit sixth in the table after dropping points at Wolves over the weekend. However, they’re 4-0-1 (W-D-L) at home this season.
Here’s how the Premier League odds shape up for Saturday’s encounter at St. James’ Park.
Newcastle United vs. Arsenal Odds
- Newcastle United to Win: +180
- Arsenal to Win: +145
- Newcastle United vs. Arsenal Draw: +240
- The Newcastle United vs. Arsenal Over/Under is 2.5 Goals
Newcastle United vs. Arsenal Prediction
Based on recent trends, the prediction for Newcastle United vs. Arsenal is Under 2.5 Goals (-120).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.
Interestingly, over 2.5 goals is -120 each way, but both team totals are juiced to the under.
As of this writing, Arsenal under 1.5 goals is priced at -175 while Newcastle team total under 1.5 goals is priced at -210.
Unless one of these teams can score twice, I have a hard time seeing the over hitting on Saturday.
Beyond those curious odds, my confidence in the under stems from a lack of faith in both offenses.
Most of Arsenal’s offense this season has come via penalties. Over the long term, that’s unsustainable.
Manager Mikel Arteta’s side has created the seventh-most expected goals in the league this season but only the 10th-most non-penalty expected goals, per fbref.com.
Shrink the sample down to four EPL road fixtures and bettors will find Arsenal has created only 1.28 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes.
They also won’t have Gabriel Jesus on Saturday, which should severely hamper their ability to create against a strong Newcastle defense.
At the same time, Newcastle’s offense is riddled with injuries.
Talisman Alexander Isak remains sidelined, along with Harvey Barnes and Jacob Murphy.
That attack must face an Arsenal defense first in non-penalty expected goals against this season.
Add in Arsenal limited Newcastle to 1.15 expected goals per 90 in two head-to-head meetings last season, and I’ll take the under on Saturday.
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