- Newcastle United is a -0.5 goal favorite vs. Manchester United.
- Manchester United have won four straight EPL road games.
- Both sides earned draws in midweek Champions League fixtures.
It’s the marquee Premier League fixture of the weekend as I’m set to provide a Newcastle United vs. Manchester United prediction.
Invigorated by recent results away from home, Manchester United has risen to sixth in the table, six points behind league leaders Arsenal.
As for Newcastle United, they annihilated Chelsea 4-1 in their last match. However, they’re still seventh in the table, one point behind Manchester United.
Here’s how the Premier League odds shape up for Saturday’s encounter at St. James’ Park.
Newcastle United vs. Manchester United Odds
- Newcastle United to Win: -105
- Manchester United to Win: +270
- Newcastle United vs. Manchester United Draw: +270
- The Newcastle United vs. Manchester United Over/Under is 2.5 Goals
Newcastle United vs. Manchester United Prediction
Based on recent trends, the prediction for Newcastle United vs. Manchester United is Newcastle United Moneyline (-105).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.
If last week’s match against Everton wasn’t Manchester United’s regression spot, THIS is the one.
Entering Saturday’s match, manager Erik ten Hag’s side owns a +2 road goal differential compared to a -2 expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
Even more concerning is they’re overperforming their underlying numbers against bad teams.
In their last four road matches – Everton, Fulham, Sheffield United and Burnley – they have a +6 goal differential against a -0.9 expected goal differential.
Now they have to face a Newcastle side that counts itself among the EPL’s best home teams.
The Magpies have a +1.37 expected goal differential per 90 minutes at St. James’ Park compared to a +0.39 xGDiff per 90 away from home.
Plus, although Newcastle is 6-0-1 (W-D-L) at home, they’ve won the expected goals battle in all seven matches.
Finally, Newcastle matches two historically profitable betting systems in this spot.
Since 2016-17, Premier League home favorites are 55.9% ATS following an outright win as an underdog.
Additionally, EPL home favorites listed at -1 or smaller that won the previous head-to-head meeting are 59.1% ATS in the next game.
In the last meeting between these sides, Newcastle earned a 2-0 home win while winning the expected goals battle 3.7 to 0.4.
To me, Newcastle isn’t priced nearly high enough. Back them up to -125 on the moneyline, and feel free to chase some alternate spreads.
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