- Newcastle United is a 0.5-goal home underdog against Arsenal.
- Arsenal has won 12 of its last 13 EPL day matches against Newcastle United.
- My Newcastle United vs. Arsenal prediction is the Newcastle United moneyline.
The newest Premier League matchday kicks off on Saturday with Arsenal traveling to Newcastle United.
Arsenal’s league troubles continued last week. After losing to Bournemouth away from home, Mikel Arteta’s side dropped points at home against Liverpool.
Newcastle fell for the second straight contest. After a 1-0 home loss to Brighton, Eddie Howe’s side fell 2-1 to Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Newcastle United vs. Arsenal prediction.
Premier League Odds: Newcastle United vs. Arsenal
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | -0.5 (-110) | 2.5 (-130) | +100 |
| Newcastle United | +0.5 (-125) | 2.5 (-105) | +270 |
| Draw | +260 |
Premier League Betting: Newcastle United vs. Arsenal Prediction
Based on Arsenal’s defensive injuries and Newcastle’s strong home record, my Newcastle United vs. Arsenal prediction is the Newcastle United Moneyline (+270).
To begin with, this price has moved far too much. These teams met in November of last year, and Newcastle closed at +180 on the three-way moneyline.
Not much has changed since that meeting, so +270 is a steal in my opinion.
Setting that aside, this is a great spot for Newcastle to catch Arsenal.
Newcastle, which has captured two wins in the last three meetings at home vs. Arsenal, gets a Gooners team with multiple injuries in defense.
Defenders Gabriel, Riccardo Calafiori, Jurrien Timber and Takehiro Tomiyasu are all out for Saturday’s fixture. Arsenal also won’t have Martin Odegaard in midfield.
The last time these sides met at St. James’ Park, Newcastle won 1-0 with a 0.94-0.15 edge on post-shot expected goals.
That marks Newcastle’s second win over Arsenal in three home matches under Eddie Howe.
This season, Newcastle has posted strong metrics as an underdog. In matches against Tottenham, Man City and Chelsea, the Magpies own a +0.5 xGDiff per 90 minutes.
Even if you remove the penalty against Man City, it becomes a +0.27 xGDiff per 90 minutes with Newcastle earning points in both home matches.
Newcastle also matches a historically profitable system in this spot.
Dogs in August or November-January priced between +203 and +961 are 57-116 SU (33%), assuming three factors:
- The dog’s result in the previous head-to-head fell between -3 and -1
- The favorite’s previous game margin falls between +0 and +1
- The dog’s previous game margin falls between -1 and +2
When those dogs fall between +203 and +300, they improve to 27-32 SU. As a result, take a shot on the Newcastle moneyline.
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