Tottenham vs. Newcastle United Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

As Tottenham continue their push for a top-four spot in the Premier League, they travel to face Newcastle United at St. James’ Park. 

Both teams earned wins in their previous fixture. Newcastle traveled to Fulham as road dogs and won 1-0, while Spurs earned a 3-1 home victory over Nottingham Forest. 

When these sides met in North London, Tottenham earned a 4-1 home win. That marks two straight matches in which the home team has earned all three points. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Saturday’s early kickoff. 

EPL Betting Odds – Tottenham vs. Newcastle United

• Tottenham Moneyline: +140
• Newcastle United Moneyline: +160
• Draw Moneyline: +290
• Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-115/-120)

EPL Prediction – Tottenham vs. Newcastle United

Total Over 3.5 Goals (-115)

History says this game has a better-than-not chance of clearing 3.5 goals for the third straight meeting. 

Recently, overs have proved particularly profitable in games featuring a home underdog taking on a good offense. 

Since the 2021-22 season, the over is 60% when the home team is an underdog, and the away team’s average number of goals is higher than 1.7. 

That system has proved most profitable this season. Sample the 80 games that qualify and bettors will find 51 cleared the pregame total. 

The underlying metrics back up the fact there will be ample goals in this fixture. 

This season, Newcastle home matches are averaging 3.73 expected goals per 90 minutes while Tottenham road matches are averaging 3.13 expected goals per 90 minutes. 

However, the most recent set of Newcastle home fixtures have proved even more chaotic. 

Sample their home matches since the calendar turned to 2024, and bettors will find they’re averaging 4.26 expected goals per 90 minutes. 

Although that sample includes a healthy amount of penalties, a lengthy period has passed since they faced an attack on Tottenham’s level. 

In their last three matches against teams with a top-four non-penalty xG output per 90, they’ve allowed north of 2.5 xG to all three. 

Tottenham have also shown they can boss the league’s worst defenses. 

Sample games against teams ranking 16th or worse in npxGA per 90 minutes, and bettors will find they’ve created 2.26 expected goals per 90 minutes, including 3.8 against Newcastle. 

That said, the Tottenham defense has looked vulnerable of late. They’ve conceded at least 1.5 xG in two straight games and let Newcastle create 1.7 in the reverse fixture. 

Given Newcastle are markedly better at home offensively – 2.39 xG per 90 at home vs. 1.35 xG per 90 on the road – expect goals from the hosts as well. 

Take the over as a result. 

Tottenham Form 

April 7 vs. Nottingham Forest: 3-1, W

April 2 at West Ham United: 1-1, D

March 30 vs. Luton Town: 2-1, W

March 16 at Fulham: 0-3, L

March 10 at Aston Villa: 4-0, W

Newcastle United Form

April 6 at Fulham: 1-0, W

April 2 vs. Everton: 1-1, D

March 30 vs. West Ham United: 4-3, W

March 16 at Man City: 0-2, L (FA Cup)

March 11 at Chelsea: 2-3, L

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