- Newcastle is a -0.5-goal favorite against Brighton.
- Newcastle lost 3-1 to Brighton earlier this season, but have won 12 of 18 at home.
- This system suggests one side is undervalued in the market on Saturday.
For Newcastle United’s final home game of the 2023-24 campaign, they’ll welcome Brighton & Hove Albion to St. James’ Park.
Both teams earned convincing wins in their previous games. Newcastle thrashed relegation-threatened Burnley 4-1, their fourth win in their last five games.
As for Brighton, they ended a six-match winless run by defeating Aston Villa 1-0 at home.
The last time these sides played, Brighton bossed the match and won 3-1. Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for the second meeting of the season.
EPL Betting Odds – Newcastle vs. Brighton
- Newcastle Moneyline: -185
- Brighton Moneyline: +400
- Draw Moneyline: +375
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-125/-110)
Premier League Prediction – Newcastle vs. Brighton
Two-Leg ML Parlay: Newcastle United & Arsenal (+115)
Newcastle United is the crux of this play, but -185 is a touch rich for my liking.
As a result, I’ll use Arsenal to drive down the price. Two systems suggest Arsenal will win on Sunday, which you can find in my Arsenal vs. Manchester United Prediction.
Essentially, I’m not going to let one performance from Brighton sway my thinking they’re on cruise control through the end of the season.
I attribute their win against Villa to the fact Brighton received a massive rest edge over Villa, who played a Thursday home match before their road fixture at Brighton last Sunday.
They won’t have a rest edge over Newcastle, who sit fourth in home xGDiff per 90 minutes this season and have dropped points at home only six times.
They’ve also played significantly better recently. Sample their last five fixtures at St. James’ Park and bettors will find they’re 4-1-0 (W-D-L) and have won the expected goals battle in all five.
Conversely, Brighton have only one road win since the calendar flipped to 2024 and have only four results in their last nine away from the South coast.
It’s also not as if Brighton has faced difficult opposition recently. In their last five road matches, they’ve played only one top-six side and two top-half teams.
Yet, they’ve posted a -0.72 expected goal differential per 90 minutes.
History also suggests Brighton are a good fade candidate on Saturday.
Since the 2012-13 season, home favorites sitting between -106 and -215 on the three-way moneyline facing a team off a win as favorites are 132-62 SU.
This season, those teams are a whopping 21-4 SU.
As a result, I’ll bet a Newcastle side that’s getting healthy at the right time to avenge their defeat earlier this season and win their final home match.
Newcastle Form
May 4 at Burnley: 4-1, W
April 27 at Sheffield United: 5-1, W
April 24 at Crystal Palace: 0-2, L
April 13 vs. Tottenham: 4-0, W
April 6 at Fulham: 1-0, W
Brighton Form
May 5 vs. Aston Villa: 1-0, W
April 28 at Bournemouth: 0-3, L
April 25 vs. Manchester City: 0-4, L
April 13 at Burnley: 1-1, D
April 6 vs. Arsenal: 0-3, L
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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