- Newcastle is a 1.5-goal home favorite against West Ham.
- West Ham has won seven of its last eight EPL Monday matches.
- My Newcastle vs. West Ham prediction focuses on the second half.
Matchday 12 of the Premier League season closes with Newcastle hosting West Ham at St. James’ Park.
Eddie Howe’s side entered the break with momentum. A 3-1 road win over Nottingham Forest have the Magpies eyeing a second consecutive win.
On Monday, they host a West Ham side that has dropped points in three of their previous four fixtures. Through five road matches, the Hammers earned only five points.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Newcastle vs. West Ham prediction.
Premier League Odds: Newcastle vs. West Ham
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham | +1.5 (-190) | 2.5 (-175) | +450 |
| Newcastle United | -1.5 (+135) | 2.5 (+125) | -185 |
| Draw | +333 |
Premier League Betting: Newcastle vs. West Ham Prediction
Based on Newcastle’s strength in the second half and West Ham’s weak defense, my Newcastle vs. West Ham prediction is the Newcastle 2H Moneyline (-125).
History tells us this is a good spot to back the hosts.
Since 2012, home favorites between -245 and +112 with nine, 14 or 15 days between games are 96-38, including 48-12 when the dog closed a favorite in their last game.
But I’m doing some betting calculus for this contest given Newcastle’s underlying data.
Howe’s side has struggled to generate chances early. Of their 16.11 xG, Newcastle amassed 10.01 in the second half, per understat.com.
That trend stays consistent even when Newcastle have added time to prepare.
Newcastle have played two matches this season with 14 or more days between games: at Wolves and vs. Brighton.
Newcastle created 3.54 xG and 2.65 post-shot xG in those matches.
In those second halves, Newcastle created 2.4 xG and 2.25 post-shot xG, winning once and drawing once.
Plus, Newcastle looked better later against West Ham last season.
Monday’s hosts captured 2-1 and 3-1 wins in each second half against West Ham.
From a metrics standpoint, Newcastle carried a 4.54-0.75 xG edge and a 3.74-0.64 post-shot xG edge.
Even if you remove a questionable penalty, the metrics still heavily favor Newcastle in those halves.
As a result, I’ll take the hosts to win the second half outright, with the expectation they’ll win the match.
For those more adventurous, Newcastle Win From Behind (+675) is worth a look, too.
Premier League Betting
You can get closer to the pitch with Premier League betting at BetMGM.
The sportsbook has a variety of odds available throughout the season, including over/under totals, live betting, player props, and more. And with futures available during the summer, there’s never a break in the EPL betting action.
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