Nottingham Forest Prediction: 2024 EPL Betting Preview

For Nottingham Forest, the 2023-24 season proved a struggle. 

Up until the final few games of the season, they were in the heat of a relegation battle. However, two wins in their final three matches earned them safety. 

Most key pieces return for Forest’s first full season under manager Nuno Espirito Santo, who led Forest to 61% of their total points last season.

Here’s a look at the EPL odds, Nottingham Forest odds and my betting predictions for Nottingham Forest’s campaign. 

Nottingham Forest Futures Odds

• League Winner: +50000
• Top-Half Finish: +600
• Bottom-Half Finish: -1200
• Relegation Odds: +250

Nottingham Forest Notable Permanent Additions

• Elliot Anderson, Midfielder (Newcastle United
• Nikola Milenkovic, Defender (Fiorentina)
• Carlos Miguel, Goalkeeper (Corinthians)
• Jota Silva, Striker (Vitoria)

Nottingham Forest Prediction, 2024 Premier League

I predict Nottingham Forest will finish in the bottom half of the Premier League next season and could face relegation. 

While it’s not exactly a bold prediction given the odds, Forest’s campaign hinges on improved goalkeeping. 

Last season, Forest finished 17th with a -18 goal differential. However, their expected goal differential was -3.3, the 12th-best mark in the league. 

The Forest attack wasn’t the problem. In fact, they scored 4.1 goals over post-shot expected goals despite sitting 17th in psxG, per fbref.com. 

But the defense really let Forest down. 

The Tricky Trees ranked fourth in psxGA and fifth in psxGA per shot on target. However, their goalkeepers allowed 17.8 goals over expected, the worst mark in the EPL. 

Even more concerning is that Forest sent out three goalkeepers over the course of the season. All three allowed at least four goals over expected. 

Forest returns two of those three keepers — Matz Sels and Matt Turner — so it’s difficult to foresee a scenario where Forest improves. 

Plus, history suggests the teams that stay up in spite of bad goalkeeping don’t improve. 

In the 2021-22 Premier League season, Leeds United finished 17th while allowing 15.6 goals over expected. 

The next year, they dropped to 19th despite “improving” to 12.9 goals allowed over expected. 

Of course, the difficult element about evaluating Forest is that they have a stronger defense than a typical bottom-half team. 

But the teams that typically finish in the top half tend to do so because of their attack. 

Last year, eight of the teams 10th or better finished 10th or better in expected goals. The previous year, nine of the top half finished 10th or better in expected goals. 

If Forest are to make a big leap this year, it will be because of their attack. I’m not willing to buy that outcome, so bettors should expect a weak campaign from Forest.