- Southampton is a 0.5-goal home favorite against Leicester City.
- Southampton has lost five of its last six EPL matches as a favorite.
- My Southampton vs. Leicester City prediction is for Leicester to cover the spread.
Two newly-promoted teams face off on Saturday at St. Mary’s Stadium, with Southampton welcoming Leicester City.
The hosts are currently 19th in the league table, ahead of Wolves only on goal differential. Southampton has yet to win a match this season, with a point from a draw with Ipswich.
Leicester earned an impressive win before the international break. The Foxes captured a 1-0 victory over Bournemouth, their third result in the last four fixtures.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Southampton vs. Leicester City prediction.
Premier League Odds: Southampton vs. Leicester City
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester City | +0.5 (-175) | 2.5 (-145) | +188 |
| Southampton | -0.5 (+120) | 2.5 (+105) | +135 |
| Draw | +250 |
Premier League Betting: Southampton vs. Leicester City Prediction
Based on historical meetings between these clubs and a profitable betting system, my Southampton vs. Leicester City prediction is the Leicester City Spread (+0.5, -175).
Although there is a lot of juice to lay, Southampton shouldn’t be a favorite against any team right now.
Plus, Leicester City dominated both head-to-head meetings when these sides played in the English second tier last season.
Even if you only sample their trip to St. Mary’s, bettors will find the Foxes won 4-1 over Southampton with a 4.1-1.6 edge on expected goals.
Most recently, Leicester won 5-0 at home over Southampton with a +1.74 xGDiff and +3.18 post-shot xGDiff.
Leicester also matches a historically profitable system.
Since 2012, half-goal underdogs in games 2-14 against previous road underdogs are 96-42 ATS (70%), assuming the spread juice range falls between -205 and +101.
Over the last three seasons, those dogs are 27-11 ATS (71%).
Given Leicester’s success against Southampton last season and those metrics, I have a hard time seeing how the visitors lose outright.
Grab Leicester to earn a result at -185 or better on Saturday.
Southampton Record, Last 5 Matches
- Oct. 5 at Arsenal: 1-3, L
- Sept. 30 at Bournemouth: 1-3, L
- Sept. 21 vs. Ipswich Town: 1-1, D
- Sept. 17 at Everton; 1-1, D (EFL Cup)
- Sept. 14 vs. Manchester United: 0-3, L
Leicester City Record, Last 5 Matches
- Oct. 5 vs. Bournemouth: 1-0, W
- Sept. 28 at Arsenal: 2-4, L
- Sept. 24 at Walsall: 0-0, D (EFL Cup)
- Sept. 21 vs. Everton: 1-1, D
- Sept. 14 at Crystal Palace: 2-2, D
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