- Southampton is a 1.5-goal home underdog against Liverpool.
- Liverpool has won eight straight EPL matches against Southampton off a win.
- My Southampton vs. Liverpool prediction is for Southampton to cover the spread.
Current title favorites Liverpool travel to the South Coast on Sunday to meet Southampton at St. Mary’s Stadium.
The Reds are currently +120 to win the league following nine wins from 11 to start the Arne Slot era. Most recently, Liverpool captured a 2-0 home win over Aston Villa.
Southampton sit 20th in the league table and have lost five of their last six league matches.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Southampton vs. Liverpool prediction.
Premier League Odds: Southampton vs. Liverpool
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | -1.5 (-135) | 3.5 (+115) | -350 |
| Southampton | +1.5 (-105) | 3.5 (-160) | +875 |
| Draw | +475 |
Premier League Betting: Southampton vs. Liverpool Prediction
Based on a historically profitable betting system, bettors are supposed to take the Southampton Spread (+1.5, -105).
Since 2012, dogs at +1.5 or +2 that closed an underdog in their previous match are 72% ATS, assuming three factors:
- The dog’s previous game margin falls between -3 and +0
- The favorite’s previous game margin falls between +0 and +2
- The juice on the spread falls between -145 and +140
However, given the Saints’ lackluster metrics against quality teams, this bet doesn’t get my endorsement.
Southampton have played three matches at full strength vs. Big Six clubs.
They failed to stay within this number against both Arsenal and Manchester United. Although they stayed within a goal at Manchester City, it was a lucky result based on expected goals.
Across all three matches, Russell Martin’s squad has recorded a -6 goal differential against a -6.4 expected goal differential and a -5.4 post-shot xGDiff, per fbref.com.
The only real argument I can make for the Saints is that Liverpool tends to play with their food away from home.
Against Ipswich Town, Wolves and Crystal Palace – the Reds’ easiest three road opponents – they’ve covered this number only once.
However, that success came against Ipswich Town. Currently, Ipswich are the side closest in quality to Southampton based on expected goal differential.
The other caveat is that Liverpool faces a home Champions League match against Real Madrid on Wednesday, so rotation is theoretically possible.
But even with a less-than-full-strength squad, my expectation is that the visitors could still cover the spread.
As a result, it’s a pass for me with a lean to Southampton based on history alone.
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