- Southampton is a +0.5-goal home underdog against Tottenham.
- Tottenham has won nine straight EPL matches as a favorite off a loss.
- I predict Tottenham will win in a high-scoring contest at St. Mary’s Stadium.
Tottenham look to end a three-match winless run with a trip to face last-place Southampton on Sunday.
Spurs carried a 2-1 lead into halftime against Chelsea on Matchday 15. However, a 3-1 Chelsea edge in the second half resigned Ange Postecoglou’s side to a second straight defeat.
Southampton sits on only five points in the league and has failed to win five straight contests. That leaves Russell Martin’s side 20th in the league table.
Check out the Premier League odds and my Southampton vs. Tottenham prediction.
Southampton vs. Tottenham Odds, Premier League
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham | -0.5 (-145) | 3.5 (-130) | -135 |
| Southampton | +0.5 (+100) | 3.5 (-105) | +290 |
| Draw | +333 |
Southampton vs. Tottenham Prediction
Based on Tottenham’s record as a favorite and their strong attack, my Southampton vs. Tottenham predictions are the Tottenham Moneyline (-135) and Over 3.5 Goals (-130).
This line, especially the Tottenham moneyline, strikes me as patently crazy.
Manchester United closed at -130 earlier in the year against Southampton. Under no circumstances are Tottenham only five cents better than United.
While there are some injury issues surrounding Tottenham, Postecoglou has proved particularly effective as favorites off a loss.
Since taking over as manager last season, Postecoglou is 9-1 SU as favorites off a loss, including 9-0 at +105 or higher on the three-way moneyline.
This season, Southampton has struggled as home underdogs.
Chelsea recently dominated them prior to a Southampton red card, and United posted a 3-0 edge over Southampton with a +2.6 edge on post-shot expected goals.
While I concede there aren’t many inspiring performances from Tottenham to point to as evidence they’ll win, history suggests they’re in a good spot.
Since 2012, favorites between -143 and +113 that produced between a +0 and +2 result in the last head-to-head meeting are 75-28, assuming both teams are off a loss.
Just over the last three seasons, those teams are 25-6 SU (81%).
In terms of the total, I expect Tottenham to contribute a lion’s share of the scoring while surrendering a chance or two on the road.
Southampton managed tallies as home dogs against both Liverpool and Chelsea. They also face a Spurs side playing on short rest after a road trip to Scotland on Thursday.
But I don’t see how Martin’s defense holds up. According to fbref.com, over their last four matches, they’ve allowed three teams to generate at least 2.3 expected goals.
This total also matches a historically profitable betting system.
Over the last two seasons, matches with a total at 3.5 goals are 22-8 to the over, assuming two factors:
- The visiting team’s average number of goals falls between 1.3 and 2.5 goals
- The home team’s previous game margin falls between -5 and -1
As a result, supplement a wager on the Tottenham moneyline with over 3.5 goals.
