- Tottenham is a -0.5 goal favorite against Aston Villa.
- Tottenham is mired in injury crises and have lost two straight games.
- Aston Villa performs markedly differently away from home.
Ahead of Sunday’s Premier League fixture, I’m set to provide a Tottenham vs. Aston Villa prediction.
After an impressive start to the season, Tottenham has fallen off recently. They lost two straight games, including a last-gasp 2-1 defeat at Wolves before the international break.
As for Aston Villa, they’ve won three of their last four games. However, they’ve earned all three points in only two road matches.
Here’s how the Premier League odds shape up for Sunday’s encounter at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Tottenham vs. Aston Villa Odds
- Tottenham to Win: +130
- Aston Villa to Win: +175
- Tottenham vs. Aston Villa Draw: +280
- The Tottenham vs. Aston Villa Over/Under is 2.5 Goals
Tottenham vs. Aston Villa Prediction
Based on recent trends, the prediction for Tottenham vs. Aston Villa is Aston Villa Draw, No Bet (+100).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.
Villa’s road metrics are definitely worrisome, but Tottenham’s injuries worry me more.
Plus, this Villa team dominated Spurs last season.
In two head-to-head meetings, manager Unai Emery’s side finished 2-0-0 (W-D-L) with a +0.98 non-penalty expected goal differential per 90 minutes.
Moreover, Villa’s road performances aren’t nearly as concerning if you remove outlying performances, both positive and negative.
In trips to Nottingham Forest, Wolves and Chelsea, they own a +0.13 expected goal differential per 90 minutes.
It also could prove an oversimplification, but Villa performed significantly better in a trip to Wolves than Tottenham.
When Villa traveled, they only lost the expected goals battle 1.68 to 1.61, while Tottenham fell in their trip 0.7 to 2.15, per fotmob.com.
Even if you account for home-field advantage, that tells me Villa shouldn’t close this high in the market.
Where Villa struggles is when they travel to face a European threat – their expected goal differential at Newcastle United and Liverpool is -3.3.
Right now, Tottenham’s team, as constructed, isn’t on the level of those two clubs.
Take Villa draw, no bet at -110 or better on Sunday.
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