- Tottenham is predicted to be a +0.5-goal underdog against Arsenal.
- Arsenal earned all three points in the most recent North London Derby.
- I predict the Arsenal team total is the target for Sunday’s fixture.
The latest edition of the North London Derby sees Arsenal travel to face Tottenham with both sides off negative results.
Arsenal took a lead against Brighton on Matchday 3. However, an early Declan Rice red card in the second half allowed the Seagulls to earn a road draw.
Tottenham, meanwhile, fell 2-1 on the road against Newcastle United. Through three matches, Ange Postecoglou’s side has only one win.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my prediction for Sunday’s fixture.
Tottenham vs. Arsenal Odds, Premier League
- Tottenham Moneyline: +190
- Arsenal Moneyline: +125
- Draw Moneyline: +260
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-185/+130)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes (-200), No (+138)
Tottenham vs. Arsenal Prediction: Arsenal Team Total
If forced to make a bet for this match, my prediction would be Arsenal Under 1.5 Goals (+100). However, this is strictly a lean.
Arsenal cleared this number in both meetings against Spurs last season. However, the underlying metrics suggest they were lucky to do so.
The Gooners scored four goals from open play and one penalty against Tottenham last season. However, it came against 2.9 post-shot expected goals total and two psxG from open play.
Just at Tottenham, they managed three tallies from open play off 1.03 xG and 1.06 psxG, per fotmob.com.
If Tottenham restores defender Micky van de Ven to the Starting XI, it will give them a chance against an overrated Arsenal attack.
I don’t put much stock into Arsenal’s 2.1 xG output against Brighton. They’re generally better offensively playing without the ball.
In two prior matches — home to Wolves, at Aston Villa — Arsenal scored four goals off 2.1 xG and 2.6 psxG.
I recognize Tottenham were a terrible defense last year — 14th in non-penalty xGA per 90 — but they possessed one good combination.
That’s the quartet of Pedro Porro, van de Ven, Christian Romero and Destiny Udogie.
When that quartet played against Arsenal on the road, they surrendered only 1.25 non-penalty xG and 0.94 non-penalty psxG.
Given those factors, it would be the under on Arsenal’s team total or nothing for this match.
Tottenham Record, Last 5 Matches
- Sept. 1 at Newcastle United: 1-2, L
- Aug. 24 vs. Everton: 4-0, W
- Aug. 19 at Leicester City: 1-1, D
- Aug. 10 vs. Bayern Munich: 2-3, L (Friendly)
- Aug. 3 at Bayern Munich: 1-2, L (Friendly)
Arsenal Record, Last 5 Matches
- Aug. 31 vs. Brighton: 1-1, D
- Aug. 24 at Aston Villa: 2-0, W
- Aug. 17 vs. Wolves: 2-0, W
- Aug. 11 vs. Lyon: 2-0, W (Friendly)
- Aug. 7 vs. Bayer Leverkusen: 4-1, W (Friendly)
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for the latest Tottenham odds and Arsenal odds!
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Brentford | Brighton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Crystal Palace | Bournemouth | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Selhurst Park |
| Everton | Manchester City | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| West Ham United | Southampton | Apr. 19 | 10 a.m. | London Stadium |
| Aston Villa | Newcastle United | Apr. 19 | 12:30 p.m. | Villa Park |
| Fulham | Chelsea | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
| Ipswich Town | Arsenal | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Wolves | Apr. 20 | 9 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Leicester City | Liverpool | Apr. 20 | 11:30 a.m. | King Power Stadium |
| Tottenham | Nottingham Forest | Apr. 21 | 3 p.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Manchester City | Aston Villa | Apr. 22 | 3 p.m. | Etihad Stadium |
| Arsenal | Crystal Palace | Apr. 23 | 3 p.m. | Emirates Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 23-7-2 | 76 | 43 |
| Arsenal | 17-12-3 | 63 | 30 |
| Newcastle United | 18-5-9 | 59 | 21 |
| Nottingham Forest | 17-6-9 | 57 | 13 |
| Manchester City | 16-7-9 | 55 | 20 |
| Chelsea | 15-9-8 | 54 | 17 |
| Aston Villa | 15-9-8 | 54 | 3 |
| Bournemouth | 13-9-10 | 48 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-10 | 48 | 4 |
| Brighton | 12-13-7 | 48 | 2 |
| Brentford | 12-7-13 | 43 | 4 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-10-11 | 43 | -4 |
| Everton | 8-14-10 | 38 | -4 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-14 | 38 | -7 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-17 | 37 | 11 |
| Wolves | 10-5-17 | 35 | -14 |
| West Ham | 9-8-15 | 35 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-19 | 21 | -34 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-22 | 18 | -45 |
| Southampton | 2-4-26 | 10 | -54 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 11-15-6 | 43.8% | 4-8-4 | 37.5% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% |
| Aston Villa | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-1 | 57.8% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Brentford | 19-11-2 | 62.5% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-5-1 | 65.6% |
| Chelsea | 11-19-2 | 37.5% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 5-10-1 | 34.4% |
| Crystal Palace | 17-12-3 | 57.8% | 7-6-3 | 53.1% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Everton | 17-10-5 | 60.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-11-3 | 60.9% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-17-2 | 43.8% | 4-12-0 | 25.0% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 14-17-1 | 45.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-15-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-7-0 | 56.3% |
| Manchester City | 10-22-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% | 5-11-0 | 31.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-15-4 | 46.9% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 19-12-1 | 60.9% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | 8-7-1 | 53.1% |
| Nottingham Forest | 20-12-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% |
| Southampton | 11-18-3 | 39.1% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 8-6-2 | 56.3% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-19-1 | 39.1% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-14-1 | 54.7% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 16-13-3 | 54.7% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
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