- Tottenham is a -1.5-goal favorite against Crystal Palace.
- Spurs are coming off a home loss, had two weeks between fixtures.
- Is the market overrating Palace following a home win?
Ahead of Saturday’s Premier League fixture at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, I’m set to offer a Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace prediction.
Spurs will look to avenge their home loss to Wolves two weeks ago, while Palace looks to continue their momentum off a 3-0 home win over Burnley last weekend.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Saturday’s fixture.
EPL Betting Odds – Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace
- Tottenham Moneyline: -190
- Crystal Palace Moneyline: +475
- Draw Moneyline: +350
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+125/-175)
EPL Prediction – Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace
Tottenham Spread (-1.5, +125) vs. Crystal Palace
Disclaimer: I prefer Tottenham -1 at -125 or better, but this offers a decent price as well.
Either way, I love this spot for Spurs, largely because they match a number of historically profitable systems.
Since the 2012-13 EPL season, home favorites are 58% ATS in the game immediately following a straight up defeat at home. Just this season, they’re 8-1 ATS.
Further, it’s historically advantageous for bettors to fade dogs coming off a win as home favorites that lost the previous head-to-head meeting.
Since the 2021-22 EPL season, such teams are 8-53 SU against the three-way moneyline. Of those 53 non-wins, 39 saw that team lose.
In the 2023 season, those teams are 0-15 against the three-way moneyline and have earned points only twice.
Palace, who earned a 3-0 home win over Burnley in their last matchup but lost to Spurs at home, fit that qualification.
Lastly, Tottenham has largely excelled this season as a home favorite. Through 10 qualifying matches, they’re 7-3 ATS.
The underlying metrics are also encouraging for Spurs, who own a +0.27 xGDiff per 90 minutes at home. On the road, Palace comes in at -0.61 xGDiff per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.
Given Palace won’t have their three most important players for Saturday’s match – Eberechi Eze, Marc Guehi and Michael Olise are all out – I’ll sell high on the Eagles.
Tottenham Form
Feb. 17 vs. Wolves: 1-2, L
Feb. 10 vs. Brighton: 2-1, W
Feb. 3 at Everton: 2-2, D
Jan. 31 vs. Brentford: 3-2, W
Jan. 26 vs. Man City: 0-1, L (FA Cup)
Crystal Palace Form
Feb. 24 vs. Burnley: 3-0, W
Feb. 19 at Everton: 1-1, D
Feb. 12 vs. Chelsea: 1-3, L
Feb. 3 at Brighton: 1-4, L
Jan. 30 vs. Sheffield United: 3-2, W
EPL Match Schedule this Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Chelsea | Everton | Apr. 26 | 7:30 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Southampton | Fulham | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Brighton | West Ham United | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Newcastle United | Ipswich Town | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Wolves | Leicester City | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Molinneux |
| Bournemouth | Manchester United | Apr. 27 | 9 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Liverpool | Tottenham | Apr. 27 | 11:30 a.m. | Anfield |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 24-7-2 | 79 | 44 |
| Arsenal | 18-13-3 | 68 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 18-7-9 | 61 | 23 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-6-9 | 60 | 14 |
| Newcastle United | 18-5-10 | 59 | 18 |
| Chelsea | 16-9-8 | 57 | 18 |
| Aston Villa | 16-9-9 | 57 | 5 |
| Bournemouth | 13-10-10 | 49 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-11 | 48 | 3 |
| Brighton | 12-13-8 | 48 | 0 |
| Brentford | 13-7-13 | 46 | 6 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-12-11 | 45 | -4 |
| Everton | 8-14-11 | 38 | -6 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-15 | 38 | -8 |
| Wolves | 11-5-17 | 38 | -13 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-18 | 37 | 10 |
| West Ham | 9-9-15 | 36 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-20 | 21 | -38 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-23 | 18 | -46 |
| Southampton | 2-5-26 | 11 | -54 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-16-6 | 44.1% | 4-9-4 | 35.3% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 7-9-1 | 44.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-2 | 57.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-2 | 64.7% |
| Brentford | 20-11-2 | 63.6% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 12-19-2 | 39.4% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 7-6-4 | 52.9% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Everton | 17-11-5 | 59.1% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-12-3 | 5.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-18-2 | 42.4% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 15-17-1 | 47.0% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-16-2 | 48.5% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-8-0 | 52.9% |
| Manchester City | 12-22-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-16-4 | 45.5% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 19-13-1 | 59.1% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 21-12-0 | 63.6% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Southampton | 12-18-3 | 40.9% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-20-1 | 37.9% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 17-13-3 | 56.1% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
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