- Tottenham is a -1.5-goal favorite against Crystal Palace.
- Spurs are coming off a home loss, had two weeks between fixtures.
- Is the market overrating Palace following a home win?
Ahead of Saturday’s Premier League fixture at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, I’m set to offer a Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace prediction.
Spurs will look to avenge their home loss to Wolves two weeks ago, while Palace looks to continue their momentum off a 3-0 home win over Burnley last weekend.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Saturday’s fixture.
EPL Betting Odds – Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace
- Tottenham Moneyline: -190
- Crystal Palace Moneyline: +475
- Draw Moneyline: +350
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+125/-175)
EPL Prediction – Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace
Tottenham Spread (-1.5, +125) vs. Crystal Palace
Disclaimer: I prefer Tottenham -1 at -125 or better, but this offers a decent price as well.
Either way, I love this spot for Spurs, largely because they match a number of historically profitable systems.
Since the 2012-13 EPL season, home favorites are 58% ATS in the game immediately following a straight up defeat at home. Just this season, they’re 8-1 ATS.
Further, it’s historically advantageous for bettors to fade dogs coming off a win as home favorites that lost the previous head-to-head meeting.
Since the 2021-22 EPL season, such teams are 8-53 SU against the three-way moneyline. Of those 53 non-wins, 39 saw that team lose.
In the 2023 season, those teams are 0-15 against the three-way moneyline and have earned points only twice.
Palace, who earned a 3-0 home win over Burnley in their last matchup but lost to Spurs at home, fit that qualification.
Lastly, Tottenham has largely excelled this season as a home favorite. Through 10 qualifying matches, they’re 7-3 ATS.
The underlying metrics are also encouraging for Spurs, who own a +0.27 xGDiff per 90 minutes at home. On the road, Palace comes in at -0.61 xGDiff per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.
Given Palace won’t have their three most important players for Saturday’s match – Eberechi Eze, Marc Guehi and Michael Olise are all out – I’ll sell high on the Eagles.
Tottenham Form
Feb. 17 vs. Wolves: 1-2, L
Feb. 10 vs. Brighton: 2-1, W
Feb. 3 at Everton: 2-2, D
Jan. 31 vs. Brentford: 3-2, W
Jan. 26 vs. Man City: 0-1, L (FA Cup)
Crystal Palace Form
Feb. 24 vs. Burnley: 3-0, W
Feb. 19 at Everton: 1-1, D
Feb. 12 vs. Chelsea: 1-3, L
Feb. 3 at Brighton: 1-4, L
Jan. 30 vs. Sheffield United: 3-2, W
EPL Match Schedule this Weekend
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Newcastle United | Manchester City | Sep. 28 | 7:30 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Arsenal | Leicester City | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Emirates Stadium |
| Brentford | West Ham United | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | GTech Community Stadium |
| Chelsea | Brighton & Hove Albion | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Everton | Crystal Palace | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | Goodison Park |
| Nottingham Forest | Fulham | Sep. 28 | 10 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Wolves | Liverpool | Sep. 28 | 12:30 p.m. | Molineux |
| Ipswich Town | Aston Villa | Sep. 29 | 9 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Manchester United | Tottenham | Sep. 29 | 11:30 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Bournemouth | Southampton | Sep. 30 | 3 p.m. | Vitality Stadium |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Manchester City | 4-1-0 | 13 | 8 |
| Liverpool | 4-0-1 | 12 | 9 |
| Aston Villa | 4-0-1 | 12 | 3 |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | 11 | 5 |
| Chelsea | 3-1-1 | 10 | 6 |
| Newcastle United | 3-1-1 | 10 | 1 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-3-0 | 9 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | 2-3-0 | 9 | 2 |
| Fulham | 2-2-1 | 8 | 2 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-1-2 | 7 | 4 |
| Manchester United | 2-1-2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brentford | 2-0-3 | 6 | -2 |
| Bournemouth | 1-2-2 | 5 | -3 |
| West Ham United | 1-1-3 | 4 | -4 |
| Leicester City | 0-3-2 | 3 | -2 |
| Crystal Palace | 0-3-2 | 3 | -3 |
| Ipswich Town | 0-3-2 | 3 | -5 |
| Southampton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -7 |
| Everton | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0-1-4 | 1 | -9 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
| Arsenal | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Aston Villa | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Bournemouth | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Brentford | 3-2-0 | .600 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Chelsea | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Crystal Palace | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Everton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Fulham | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| Ipswich Town | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
| Leicester City | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Liverpool | 4-1-0 | .800 | 2-1-0 | .667 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester City | 3-2-0 | .600 | 1-2-0 | .333 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Manchester United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Newcastle United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 1-1-0 | .500 | 1-2-0 | .333 |
| Nottingham Forest | 3-2-0 | .600 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 3-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Southampton | 1-4-0 | .200 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 1-1-0 | .500 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 2-3-0 | .400 | 2-1-0 | .500 | 0-2-0 | .000 |
| West Ham United | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-3-0 | .000 | 2-0-0 | 1.000 |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3-0 | .400 | 0-2-0 | .000 | 2-1-0 | .667 |
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