- Tottenham is a +1.5-goal home underdog against Man City.
- Spurs captured a 3-3 draw in the reverse fixture against Man City.
- History suggests the hosts are worth a flier on the moneyline.
It’s the match that’s likely to decide the Premier League title this season.
Manchester City will play their game in hand at Tottenham, who are simultaneously chasing a Champions League spot. If City win, they’re likely to win the title.
However, Tottenham have proved a bogey team for the Cityzens under Pep Guardiola. In their last five trips to face Tottenham, City is a dismal 1-4 SU.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Tuesday’s fixture.
EPL Odds – Tottenham vs. Man City
- Tottenham Moneyline: +550
- Man City Moneyline: -250
- Draw Moneyline: +450
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-145/+105)
Premier League Prediction – Tottenham vs. Man City
Tottenham Moneyline (+550) – Wait for Liverpool-Aston Villa Result
If Aston Villa drop all three points against Liverpool on Monday, I believe Tottenham is worth a flier on the moneyline.
At their current odds, Tuesday’s hosts have a 15.4% implied probability to win on Tuesday and end City’s eight-match winning streak in the league.
Although Spurs have myriad injury issues to overcome, there are two historical systems to suggest they have a higher chance to win than these odds suggest.
Since the 2012-13 season, home underdogs sitting at +251 or higher have won 24% of the time (92-291), assuming two factors:
- The underdog’s previous game margin is between +0 and +3
- The previous head-to-head result was between -8 and +0
Additionally, Spurs fit another system that suggests underdogs, irrespective of venue, are worth a bet.
Across the same timeframe, underdogs in games 18-38 are 28.5% SU (77-193), assuming three factors:
- The previous head-to-head result was between -4 and +0
- The underdog’s previous game margin is between +1 and +4
- The opponent’s previous game margin is between +1 and +5
Although Tottenham just lost at home against Arsenal, a comparable team to Manchester City, they remain 13-5 SU at home this season.
Plus, Manchester City has struggled on the road against quality competition.
Tottenham will be the sixth side City has faced that possesses a home expected goal differential per 90 at +0.55 or higher.
In the five other contests, City is 1-2-2 (W-L-D).
As a result, I expect City either blows Tottenham out of the water or they lose outright. Assuming Spurs are properly motivated, they’re worth a sprinkle at +500 or better.
Tottenham Form
May 11 vs. Burnley: 2-1, W
May 5 at Liverpool: 2-4, L
May 2 at Chelsea: 0-2, L
April 28 vs. Arsenal: 2-3, L
April 13 at Newcastle United: 0-4, L
Man City Form
May 11 at Fulham: 4-0, W
May 4 vs. Wolves: 5-1, W
April 28 at Nottingham Forest: 2-0, W
April 25 at Brighton: 4-0, W
April 20 vs. Chelsea: 1-0, W (FA Cup)
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Nottingham Forest | Chelsea | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | The City Ground |
| Southampton | Arsenal | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Liverpool | Crystal Palace | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Anfield |
| Ipswich Town | West Ham | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Portman Road |
| Bournemouth | Leicester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Man United | Aston Villa | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Old Trafford |
| Newcastle | Everton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Tottenham | Brighton | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Wolves | Brentford | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Molineux |
| Fulham | Manchester City | May. 25 | 11 a.m. | Craven Cottage |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 25-8-4 | 83 | 45 |
| Arsenal | 19-14-4 | 71 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 20-8-9 | 68 | 26 |
| Newcastle United | 20-6-11 | 66 | 22 |
| Chelsea | 19-9-9 | 66 | 20 |
| Aston Villa | 19-9-9 | 66 | 9 |
| Nottingham Forest | 19-8-10 | 65 | 13 |
| Brighton | 15-14-8 | 58 | 4 |
| Brentford | 16-7-14 | 55 | 9 |
| Fulham | 15-9-13 | 54 | 2 |
| Bournemouth | 14-11-12 | 53 | 9 |
| Crystal Palace | 13-13-11 | 52 | 0 |
| Everton | 10-15-12 | 45 | -3 |
| Wolves | 12-5-20 | 41 | -15 |
| West Ham | 10-10-17 | 40 | -18 |
| Manchester United | 10-9-18 | 39 | -12 |
| Tottenham | 11-5-21 | 38 | 2 |
| Leicester City | 6-7-24 | 25 | -45 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-10-23 | 22 | -44 |
| Southampton | 2-6-29 | 12 | -59 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 14-17-6 | 45.9% | 5-10-4 | 36.8% | 9-7-2 | 55.6% |
| Aston Villa | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-1 | 50.0% | 9-9-0 | 50.0% |
| Bournemouth | 19-16-2 | 54.1% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 11-6-2 | 63.2% |
| Brentford | 22-12-3 | 63.5% | 11-8-0 | 57.9% | 11-4-3 | 69.4% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 10-9-0 | 52.6% | 11-6-1 | 63.9% |
| Chelsea | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% |
| Crystal Palace | 20-13-4 | 59.5% | 8-7-4 | 52.6% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Everton | 19-12-6 | 59.5% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% | 10-4-4 | 66.7% |
| Fulham | 18-14-4 | 55.6% | 8-10-0 | 44.4% | 10-5-4 | 63.2% |
| Ipswich Town | 14-20-3 | 41.9% | 4-13-1 | 25.0% | 10-7-2 | 57.9% |
| Leicester City | 18-18-1 | 50.0% | 8-11-0 | 42.1% | 10-7-1 | 58.3% |
| Liverpool | 16-19-2 | 45.9% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 9-10-0 | 47.4% |
| Manchester City | 13-24-0 | 35.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% | 6-12-0 | 33.3% |
| Manchester United | 14-18-5 | 44.6% | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 7-9-3 | 44.7% |
| Newcastle United | 21-15-1 | 58.1% | 13-5-0 | 72.2% | 8-10-1 | 44.7% |
| Nottingham Forest | 23-14-0 | 62.2% | 10-8-0 | 55.6% | 13-6-0 | 68.4% |
| Southampton | 13-20-4 | 40.5% | 4-12-2 | 27.8% | 9-8-2 | 52.6% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 13-23-1 | 36.5% | 6-11-1 | 36.1% | 7-12-0 | 36.8% |
| West Ham United | 18-17-2 | 51.4% | 6-12-1 | 34.2% | 12-6-0 | 66.7% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 19-15-3 | 55.4% | 8-8-2 | 50.0% | 11-7-1 | 60.5% |
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