Tottenham vs. Man City Prediction, Expert Pick | EPL – BetMGM

min read
Tottenham's James Maddison, centre, celebrates with Tottenham's Son Heung-min after scoring his side's second goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Tottenham Hotspur and Fulham at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, Monday, Oct. 23, 2023.
(Kin Cheung/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion May 13, 2024, 3:56 PM
  • Tottenham is a +1.5-goal home underdog against Man City.
  • Spurs captured a 3-3 draw in the reverse fixture against Man City.
  • History suggests the hosts are worth a flier on the moneyline.

It’s the match that’s likely to decide the Premier League title this season. 

Manchester City will play their game in hand at Tottenham, who are simultaneously chasing a Champions League spot. If City win, they’re likely to win the title. 

However, Tottenham have proved a bogey team for the Cityzens under Pep Guardiola. In their last five trips to face Tottenham, City is a dismal 1-4 SU. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my prediction for Tuesday’s fixture. 

EPL Odds – Tottenham vs. Man City

  • Tottenham Moneyline: +550
  • Man City Moneyline: -250
  • Draw Moneyline: +450
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (-145/+105)

Premier League Prediction – Tottenham vs. Man City

Tottenham Moneyline (+550) – Wait for Liverpool-Aston Villa Result

If Aston Villa drop all three points against Liverpool on Monday, I believe Tottenham is worth a flier on the moneyline. 

At their current odds, Tuesday’s hosts have a 15.4% implied probability to win on Tuesday and end City’s eight-match winning streak in the league. 

Although Spurs have myriad injury issues to overcome, there are two historical systems to suggest they have a higher chance to win than these odds suggest. 

Since the 2012-13 season, home underdogs sitting at +251 or higher have won 24% of the time (92-291), assuming two factors:

  • The underdog’s previous game margin is between +0 and +3
  • The previous head-to-head result was between -8 and +0

Additionally, Spurs fit another system that suggests underdogs, irrespective of venue, are worth a bet. 

Across the same timeframe, underdogs in games 18-38 are 28.5% SU (77-193), assuming three factors:

  • The previous head-to-head result was between -4 and +0
  • The underdog’s previous game margin is between +1 and +4
  • The opponent’s previous game margin is between +1 and +5

Although Tottenham just lost at home against Arsenal, a comparable team to Manchester City, they remain 13-5 SU at home this season. 

Plus, Manchester City has struggled on the road against quality competition. 

Tottenham will be the sixth side City has faced that possesses a home expected goal differential per 90 at +0.55 or higher. 

In the five other contests, City is 1-2-2 (W-L-D). 

As a result, I expect City either blows Tottenham out of the water or they lose outright. Assuming Spurs are properly motivated, they’re worth a sprinkle at +500 or better. 

Tottenham Form 

May 11 vs. Burnley: 2-1, W

May 5 at Liverpool: 2-4, L

May 2 at Chelsea: 0-2, L

April 28 vs. Arsenal: 2-3, L

April 13 at Newcastle United: 0-4, L

Man City Form

May 11 at Fulham: 4-0, W

May 4 vs. Wolves: 5-1, W

April 28 at Nottingham Forest: 2-0, W

April 25 at Brighton: 4-0, W

April 20 vs. Chelsea: 1-0, W (FA Cup)

Upcoming EPL Match Schedule

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

Soccer Odds at BetMGM

With around-the-clock matches throughout the year, there’s never a break in soccer betting action at BetMGM.

You can view updated soccer odds for the Champions League, MLS, World Cup, and other leagues and events around the world.

Sign in to your account today — or, if you don’t have an account, sign up today with a sportsbook welcome offer — to start betting. And always check your new account for updated sportsbook promos and bonuses.

Visit the sportsbook today to place your bet online!

BetMGM First Bet Offer $1,500
About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.