- Tottenham is predicted to be a 1.5-goal favorite against West Ham.
- The favorite has won nine straight games when Tottenham is the home team.
- My Tottenham vs. West Ham prediction is a Same Game Parlay.
A London Derby kicks off the Premier League’s return from the international break as Tottenham hosts West Ham United.
Tottenham entered the break with a poor result. After taking a 2-0 lead at Brighton, Ange Postecoglou’s side conceded three straight goals to fall 3-2 as road favorites.
West Ham continued its positive run of results with a 4-1 home win over Ipswich Town before the break. That gives the Hammers four points from six in its last two matches.
Here’s a look at the Premier League odds and my Tottenham vs. West Ham prediction.
Premier League Odds: Tottenham vs. West Ham
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham United | +1.5 (-165) | 3.5 (-110) | +450 |
| Tottenham | -1.5 (+115) | 3.5 (-130) | -200 |
| Draw | +380 |
Premier League Betting: Tottenham vs. West Ham Prediction
Based on Tottenham’s excellent record as a home favorite and each team’s lackluster defensive metrics, my prediction is a SGP: Tottenham Moneyline & Over 2.5 Goals (-120).
Under Postecoglou, Tottenham has excelled as a home favorite. Spurs are 13-3 SU in such spots, including 6-0 as home favorites off a loss.
Spurs also match two historically profitable betting systems.
Since 2012, home favorites priced between -235 and -110 against previous favorites are 68% SU, assuming the previous head-to-head margin fell between -1 and +1.
When those teams fall between -235 and -170: 64-23 SU (73.6%).
Additionally, favorites priced between -220 and +105 off a loss as favorites are 68% since 2012, including 50-17 (75%) when priced between -220 and -155.
The crux of this play, though, is the total.
Goals flowed the last time these teams met at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. The match finished 2-1 to West Ham, but the teams combined four four expected goals.
Additionally, West Ham have struggled to defend this season against the league’s best teams.
In matches against Chelsea and Aston Villa, West Ham surrendered 2.1 expected goals per 90 minutes.
While I worry about West Ham’s attacking metrics, history suggests this total is a system match at 3.5 goals.
Since 2012, totals at 2.5 or 3.5 are 60% to the over, assuming the home team is coming off a loss and the road team allows between 1.3 and 1.8 goals per game.
When those home teams saw its last game clear the total by at least 1.5 goals, the system improves to 77-42 (65%), including 6-4 at 3.5 goals.
I’ll buy the total down to 2.5 goals for added safety and pair it with the Tottenham moneyline. Bet this SGP at -130 or better.
Tottenham Record, Last 5 Matches
- Oct. 6 at Brighton: 2-3, L
- Oct. 3 at Ferencvaros: 2-1, W (Europa League)
- Sept. 29 at Manchester United: 3-0, W
- Sept. 26 vs. Qarabag: 3-0, W (Europa League)
- Sept. 21 vs. Brentford: 3-1, W
West Ham Record, Last 5 Matches
- Oct. 5 vs. Ipswich Town: 4-1, W
- Sept. 28 at Brentford: 1-1, D
- Sept. 25 at Liverpool: 1-5, L (EFL Cup)
- Sept. 21 vs. Chelsea: 0-3, L
- Sept. 14 at Fulham: 1-1, D
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