- Tottenham is a -0.5 goal home favorite against West Ham United.
- Tottenham earned a 3-3 road draw against Manchester City over the weekend.
- West Ham are a major negative regression candidate.
Before Thursday’s English Premier League match, I’m set to provide a Tottenham vs. West Ham prediction.
Following a three-match losing run, Spurs captured an impressive 3-3 draw against Manchester City over the weekend.
Currently, they’re two points behind Aston Villa for the final Champions League spot.
As for West Ham United, they drew 1-1 over the weekend against Crystal Palace. Entering Thursday’s fixture, they’re ninth in the EPL table.
Here’s how the Premier League odds shape up for Thursday’s encounter at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Tottenham vs. West Ham United Odds
- Tottenham to Win: -130
- West Ham to Win: +290
- Tottenham vs. West Ham Draw: +310
- The Tottenham vs. West Ham Over/Under is 2.5 Goals
Tottenham vs. West Ham Prediction
Based on recent trends, the prediction for Tottenham vs. West Ham is Tottenham Moneyline (-130).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.
Hosts Tottenham still have a few injury concerns, but reinforcements are arriving for this match.
Center-back Christian Romero returns from a three-match suspension while striker Richarlison also re-enters the fold.
That should allow them to capitalize on their point against Manchester City and take down a West Ham team that is overperforming their underlying metrics.
Through 14 matches, the Hammers have a +0 goal differential compared to a -4.8 expected goal differential and -2.4 non-penalty expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
Most of that overperformance can be attributed to lucky offensive bounces. Manager David Moyes’ side has scored 24 goals off 19.6 expected.
Plus, Tottenham have proved a very tough opponent at home.
In six fixtures at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Thursday’s hosts are 4-0-2 (W-D-L).
However, one of those losses came when Spurs played down two men, with the second coming against Aston Villa, a side miles better than West Ham.
In the four previous fixtures, Spurs won all four while creating at least 1.5 expected goals in all four matches.
That gives them an inherent advantage over a West Ham defense 13th in non-penalty expected goals against per 90 minutes.
Assuming the West Ham attack begins their regression, the Spurs attack could prove the deciding unit in this match.
Finally, Tottenham matches a historically profitable betting system.
Since the 2021-22 season, teams that won the previous head-to-head meeting and are a home favorite between 0 and -1 are 59.5% ATS in the subsequent meeting.
Given Spurs produced a convincing 2-0 win in the last meeting with West Ham – including 1.55 to 0.48 on expected goals – I’ll back them at -135 or better.
Soccer Odds at BetMGM
With around-the-clock matches throughout the year, there’s never a break in soccer betting action at BetMGM.
You can view updated soccer odds for the Champions League, MLS, World Cup, and other leagues and events around the world.
Sign in to your account today — or, if you don’t have an account, sign up today with a sportsbook welcome offer — to start betting. And always check your new account for updated sportsbook promos and bonuses.
Visit the sportsbook today to place your bet online!