- Chelsea is -0.5 goal favorite against Manchester United.
- Chelsea earned a 3-2 home win against Brighton over the weekend.
- Manchester United lost 1-0 at Newcastle but won three straight prior.
Ahead of Wednesday’s marquee English Premier League match, I’m set to provide a Manchester United vs. Chelsea prediction.
Chelsea put an end to a two-match winless run by capturing a 3-2 win over Brighton on Sunday.
As it stands, Chelsea sit 10th in the table but have massively underperformed their underlying metrics.
Regarding United, they lost 1-0 at Newcastle on Saturday. Despite the close scoreline, United lost the expected goals battle 2.4 to 0.5.
Here’s how the Premier League odds shape up for Wednesday’s encounter at Old Trafford.
Manchester United vs. Chelsea Odds
- Manchester United to Win: +180
- Chelsea to Win: +135
- Manchester United vs. Chelsea Draw: +260
- The Manchester United vs. Chelsea Over/Under is 2.5 Goals
Manchester United vs. Chelsea Prediction
Based on recent trends, the prediction for Manchester United vs. Chelsea is Manchester United Draw, No Bet (+100).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.
Trusting United off an embarrassing weekend performance is nerve-wracking, but I think the market has overreacted to United’s run of form.
The Red Devils are complete frauds away from home despite winning four straight.
However, they’ve actually underperformed their underlying metrics at Old Trafford, where they return after playing four of their last six away from home.
Entering Wednesday’s match, they have a -2 home goal differential against a +0.4 home expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
I simultaneously believe Chelsea are overvalued away from home, having faced a pretty easy schedule.
The metrics are a bit inflated as a result of their 4-1 win at Tottenham when they played up two men for a large portion.
However, in their trip to Newcastle United, they surrendered 2.4 expected goals on their way to a 4-1 defeat.
That came after allowing 2.1 expected goals to Manchester City at home.
Plus, the last time these two sides played, United completely dominated the match.
Against a similar Chelsea team, they won the non-penalty expected goals battle 4.42 to 1.94, per fotmob.com.
Also worth noting is the fact Big Six clubs have proved quite profitable as home underdogs against fellow Big Six clubs.
Over the last two seasons, the following four clubs – Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham – are 14-7 ATS when they’re a home underdog. Specific to Manchester United, they’re 2-1 as a home dog over the last two seasons.
Take United draw, no bet so long as it remains at +100 or better.
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