- West Ham is a +0.5-goal home underdog against Brighton.
- Brighton has scored at least one goal in each of its last 12 EPL matches.
- My West Ham vs. Brighton prediction focuses on the pregame over/under.
Two teams off negative results meet on Saturday at the London Stadium, with West Ham hosting Brighton.
The Hammers dropped points in a trip to Bournemouth as road dogs. Currently, Julen Lopetegui’s side sits 14th in the league table.
Brighton’s flawed record as favorites continued on Matchday 16 as the Seagulls fell 3-1 to Crystal Palace. That defeat dropped the Seagulls to ninth in the league table.
Check out the Premier League odds and my West Ham vs. Brighton prediction.
West Ham vs. Brighton Odds, Premier League
West Ham vs. Brighton Prediction
Based on West Ham’s poor defensive record as underdogs and Brighton’s penchant for high-scoring road matches, my West Ham vs. Brighton prediction is Over 3.5 Goals (+135).
Brighton road fixtures are currently averaging 3.09 expected goals per 90 minutes. On Saturday, Fabian Huerzler’s side plays a bad West Ham defense.
The Hammers are allowing 1.9 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes this season. That’s the fourth-worst mark in the Premier League, ahead of only the newly-promoted sides.
For all of Brighton’s flaws this season, they’ve consistently posted strong attacking metrics against bad defenses.
Sample three matches against teams allowing at least 1.6 non-penalty xGA per 90 minutes and bettors will find the results quite encouraging.
Huerzler’s side is creating 1.6 xG per 90 in those three matches along with 1.97 post-shot expected goals per 90 minutes.
When these sides met last year, Brighton created 1.95 xG per 90 and 1.73 post-shot xG per 90 against West Ham.
That said, I have little faith in a Brighton defense that has kept only three clean sheets in the league through 16 matches.
West Ham have also begun to record some strong attacking metrics as home underdogs.
Lopetegui’s side created 1.5 xG and 2.3 post-shot xG in their last such match against Arsenal. West Ham also created 2.2 non-penalty xG against Manchester United.
Both those teams rate out as superior defenses to Brighton’s defense, so I expect chances will come for West Ham.
History also rates this a good spot to bet over 3.5 goals.
Since 2021, matches featuring a total of 3.5 goals and a home dog are 15-5 to the over, assuming two factors:
- The road team’s average number of goals scored falls between 1.2 and 2.5
- The road team’s last match cleared the pregame total by at least 1.5 goals
As a result, take the plus money here and back a high-scoring contest in London.
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