Aston Villa vs. West Ham Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Aston Villa's Ollie Watkins celebrates after scoring his second goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Fulham and Aston Villa at Craven cottage stadium in London, Saturday, Feb. 17, 2024.
(Alastair Grant/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Mar 15, 2024, 2:39 PM
  • Aston Villa is a -0.5-goal favorite against West Ham.
  • Villa thrashed West Ham 4-1 in the reverse fixture at Villa Park.
  • Profitable system says bettors should target the total on Sunday.

This match is the marquee fixture on a short Premier League weekend. Below, bettors can find my prediction for Aston Villa vs. West Ham

Both teams enter this fixture in disappointing form. Villa lost 4-0 at home to Tottenham last Sunday and conceded two goals whilst down a man. 

As for West Ham, they experienced some bad luck against Burnley – a screamer from well outside the box and an own goal saw them fall behind 2-0 before rescuing a point. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Sunday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Aston Villa vs. West Ham

  • Aston Villa Moneyline: +125
  • West Ham Moneyline: +185
  • Draw Moneyline: +275
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+125/-175)

EPL Prediction – Aston Villa vs. West Ham

Total Over 3.5 Goals (+125)

Wait for lineups to come out before betting this market as I only like it if Villa talisman Ollie Watkins starts.

If he does, I don’t know how this game is anything but pure chaos. 

This season, overs have proved particularly profitable in matches featuring a home dog with a bad defense. 

Sample 63 games in which the home dog allows more than 1.7 goals per game, and bettors will find 39 of those games have cleared the pre-match total. 

Within that system, bettors should note the over is 4-1 when Aston Villa is the road team, including three straight overs. 

West Ham’s defense was unlucky last week, but that positive regression won’t come against a strong Villa attack. 

In the last meeting between these sides, Villa created 3.14 post shot expected goals and 2.23 non-penalty psxG, per fotmob.com. 

Plus, West Ham will play this match on short rest after featuring in the Europa League on Thursday. 

At the same time, Villa’s defense – even if manager Unai Emery opts for five at the back – should look tired after their Europa Conference League tie on Thursday. 

West Ham’s attack has also looked solid at home when they have Lucas Paqueta in the lineup. 

In 11 such matches, manager David Moyes’ side has created 1.43 expected goals per 90 minutes. 

Plus, the Hammers face a Villa defense that’s looked vulnerable recently. 

Since the calendar turned to 2024, Emery’s side has surrendered 1.79 expected goals per 90 minutes, according to fbref.com. 

As a result, bettors should expect goals galore in Sunday’s match. Take over 3.5 at +100 or better. 

Aston Villa Form 

March 14 vs. Ajax: 4-0, W (Europa Conference League)

March 10 vs. Tottenham: 0-4, L

March 7 at Ajax: 0-0, D (Europa Conference League)

March 2 at Luton Town: 3-2, W

Feb. 24 vs. Nottingham Forest: 4-2, W

West Ham Form

March 14 vs. Freiburg: 5-0, W (Europa League)

March 10 vs. Burnley: 2-2, D

March 7 at Freiburg: 0-1, L (Europa League)

March 2 at Everton: 3-1, W

Feb. 26 vs. Brentford: 4-2, W

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
Newcastle UnitedTottenhamApr. 137:30 AMSt. James' Park
BrentfordSheffield UnitedApr. 1310:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
BurnleyBrightonApr. 1310:00 AMTurf Moor
Man CityLuton TownApr. 1310:00 AMEtihad Stadium
Nottingham ForestWolvesApr. 1310:00 AMThe City Ground
BournemouthManchester UnitedApr. 1312:30 PMVitality Stadium
LiverpoolCrystal PalaceApr. 149:00 AMAnfield
West Ham UnitedFulhamApr. 149:00 AMLondon Stadium
ArsenalAston VillaApr. 1411:30 PMEmirates Stadium
ChelseaEvertonApr. 153:00 PMStamford Bridge

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Arsenal FC22-5-47151---
Liverpool FC21-8-27142---
Manchester City21-7-37040---
Tottenham Hotspur18-6-76020---
Aston Villa FC18-6-86017---
Manchester United15-4-1249-1---
West Ham United13-9-1048-4---
Newcastle United14-5-124713---
Chelsea FC12-8-10443---
Brighton & Hove Albion11-10-10432---
Wolves12-6-1342-5---
Bournemouth11-8-1241-10---
Fulham FC11-6-1539-4---
Crystal Palace7-9-1530-18---
Brentford7-8-1729-13---
Everton9-8-1427-108 Point Deduction
Nottingham Forest7-8-1725-164 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-7-1925-20---
Burnley FC4-7-2119-35---
Sheffield United3-7-2116-52---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal18-13.5818-7.53310-6.625
Aston Villa16-15-1.51610-6.6256-9-1.406
Bournemouth18-12-1.5979-6-1.5949-6.600
Brentford11-19-2.3755-10-1.3446-9-1.406
Brighton & Hove Albion15-15-1.5008-7.5337-8-1.469
Burnley12-19-1.3913-12-1.2199-7.563
Chelsea14-16.4679-6.6005-10.333
Crystal Palace14-17.4526-9.4008-8.500
Everton14-17.4527-8.4677-9.438
Fulham16-15-1.51610-5-1.6566-10.375
Liverpool16-15.5169-7.5637-8.467
Luton Town21-10-1.67212-4.7509-6-1.594
Manchester City13-18.4196-10.3757-8.467
Manchester United12-19.3876-9.4006-10.375
Newcastle United15-16.48410-6.6255-10.333
Nottingham Forest14-16-2.4695-10-1.3449-6-1.594
Sheffield United18-13.5819-7.5639-6.600
Tottenham Hotspur18-13.5819-7.5639-6.600
West Ham United17-15.53110-6.6257-9.438
Wolverhampton Wanderers16-14-1.5328-7.5338-7-1.531

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.