Aston Villa vs. West Ham Prediction, Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview

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Aston Villa's Ollie Watkins celebrates after scoring his second goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Fulham and Aston Villa at Craven cottage stadium in London, Saturday, Feb. 17, 2024.
(Alastair Grant/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Mar 15, 2024, 2:39 PM
  • Aston Villa is a -0.5-goal favorite against West Ham.
  • Villa thrashed West Ham 4-1 in the reverse fixture at Villa Park.
  • Profitable system says bettors should target the total on Sunday.

This match is the marquee fixture on a short Premier League weekend. Below, bettors can find my prediction for Aston Villa vs. West Ham

Both teams enter this fixture in disappointing form. Villa lost 4-0 at home to Tottenham last Sunday and conceded two goals whilst down a man. 

As for West Ham, they experienced some bad luck against Burnley – a screamer from well outside the box and an own goal saw them fall behind 2-0 before rescuing a point. 

Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Sunday’s match. 

EPL Betting Odds – Aston Villa vs. West Ham

  • Aston Villa Moneyline: +125
  • West Ham Moneyline: +185
  • Draw Moneyline: +275
  • Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+125/-175)

EPL Prediction – Aston Villa vs. West Ham

Total Over 3.5 Goals (+125)

Wait for lineups to come out before betting this market as I only like it if Villa talisman Ollie Watkins starts.

If he does, I don’t know how this game is anything but pure chaos. 

This season, overs have proved particularly profitable in matches featuring a home dog with a bad defense. 

Sample 63 games in which the home dog allows more than 1.7 goals per game, and bettors will find 39 of those games have cleared the pre-match total. 

Within that system, bettors should note the over is 4-1 when Aston Villa is the road team, including three straight overs. 

West Ham’s defense was unlucky last week, but that positive regression won’t come against a strong Villa attack. 

In the last meeting between these sides, Villa created 3.14 post shot expected goals and 2.23 non-penalty psxG, per fotmob.com. 

Plus, West Ham will play this match on short rest after featuring in the Europa League on Thursday. 

At the same time, Villa’s defense – even if manager Unai Emery opts for five at the back – should look tired after their Europa Conference League tie on Thursday. 

West Ham’s attack has also looked solid at home when they have Lucas Paqueta in the lineup. 

In 11 such matches, manager David Moyes’ side has created 1.43 expected goals per 90 minutes. 

Plus, the Hammers face a Villa defense that’s looked vulnerable recently. 

Since the calendar turned to 2024, Emery’s side has surrendered 1.79 expected goals per 90 minutes, according to fbref.com. 

As a result, bettors should expect goals galore in Sunday’s match. Take over 3.5 at +100 or better. 

Aston Villa Form 

March 14 vs. Ajax: 4-0, W (Europa Conference League)

March 10 vs. Tottenham: 0-4, L

March 7 at Ajax: 0-0, D (Europa Conference League)

March 2 at Luton Town: 3-2, W

Feb. 24 vs. Nottingham Forest: 4-2, W

West Ham Form

March 14 vs. Freiburg: 5-0, W (Europa League)

March 10 vs. Burnley: 2-2, D

March 7 at Freiburg: 0-1, L (Europa League)

March 2 at Everton: 3-1, W

Feb. 26 vs. Brentford: 4-2, W

EPL Match Schedule This Weekend

HomeAwayDateTime (ET)Location
ArsenalEvertonMay. 1911:00 AMEmirates Stadium
Man CityWest Ham UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMEtihad Stadium
BrentfordNewcastle UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMGTech Community Stadium
Brighton & Hove AlbionManchester UnitedMay. 1911:00 AMAmex Stadium
BurnleyNottingham ForestMay. 1911:00 AMTurf Moor
ChelseaBournemouthMay. 1911:00 AMStamford Bridge
Crystal PalaceAston VillaMay. 1911:00 AMSelhurst Park
LiverpoolWolvesMay. 1911:00 AMAnfield
Luton TownFulhamMay. 1911:00 AMKenilworth Road
Sheffield UnitedTottenhamMay. 1911:00 AMBramall Lane

EPL Standings

TeamRecord (Wins-Draws-Losses)PointsGoal DifferentialNotes
Manchester City27-7-38860---
Arsenal FC27-5-58661---
Liverpool FC23-10-47943---
Aston Villa FC20-8-96820---
Tottenham Hotspur19-6-126310---
Chelsea FC17-9-116013---
Newcastle United17-6-145721---
Manchester United17-6-1457-3---
West Ham United14-10-1352-12---
Brighton & Hove Albion12-12-1248-4---
Bournemouth13-9-1548-12---
Crystal Palace12-10-1546-6---
Wolves13-7-1746-13---
Fulham FC12-8-1744-8---
Everton13-9-1540-108 Point Deduction
Brentford10-9-1839-7---
Nottingham Forest8-9-2029-194 Point Deduction
Luton Town6-8-2326-31---
Burnley FC5-9-2324-36---
Sheffield United3-7-2716-66---

EPL ATS Records

TeamATS RecordATS Win Pct.Home ATS RecordHome ATS Win Pct.Road ATS RecordRoad ATS Win Pct.
Arsenal22-14-1.60810-7-1.58312-7.632
Aston Villa19-17-1.52712-7.6327-10-1.417
Bournemouth19-16-2.5419-8-2.52610-8.556
Brentford14-21-2.4056-11-1.3618-10-1.447
Brighton & Hove Albion15-20-2.4328-9-1.4727-11-1.395
Burnley18-19.4865-13.27813-6.684
Chelsea19-18.51410-8.5569-10.474
Crystal Palace20-17.5419-9.50011-8.579
Everton17-20.45910-9.5267-11.389
Fulham18-18-1.50010-8-1.5538-10.444
Liverpool18-19.48610-8.5568-11.421
Luton Town22-14-1.60813-5.7229-9-1.500
Manchester City19-18.5148-10.44411-8.579
Manchester United17-20.4599-10.4748-10.444
Newcastle United18-19.48612-7.6326-12.333
Nottingham Forest15-20-2.4325-13-1.28910-7-1.583
Sheffield United19-18.5149-9.50010-9.526
Tottenham Hotspur18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500
West Ham United19-18.51412-7.6327-11.389
Wolverhampton Wanderers18-19.4869-10.4749-9.500

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.