- Aston Villa is a -0.5-goal favorite against West Ham.
- Villa thrashed West Ham 4-1 in the reverse fixture at Villa Park.
- Profitable system says bettors should target the total on Sunday.
This match is the marquee fixture on a short Premier League weekend. Below, bettors can find my prediction for Aston Villa vs. West Ham.Â
Both teams enter this fixture in disappointing form. Villa lost 4-0 at home to Tottenham last Sunday and conceded two goals whilst down a man.Â
As for West Ham, they experienced some bad luck against Burnley – a screamer from well outside the box and an own goal saw them fall behind 2-0 before rescuing a point.Â
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my best bet for Sunday’s match.Â
EPL Betting Odds – Aston Villa vs. West Ham
- Aston Villa Moneyline: +125
- West Ham Moneyline: +185
- Draw Moneyline: +275
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+125/-175)
EPL Prediction – Aston Villa vs. West Ham
Total Over 3.5 Goals (+125)
Wait for lineups to come out before betting this market as I only like it if Villa talisman Ollie Watkins starts.
If he does, I don’t know how this game is anything but pure chaos.Â
This season, overs have proved particularly profitable in matches featuring a home dog with a bad defense.Â
Sample 63 games in which the home dog allows more than 1.7 goals per game, and bettors will find 39 of those games have cleared the pre-match total.Â
Within that system, bettors should note the over is 4-1 when Aston Villa is the road team, including three straight overs.Â
West Ham’s defense was unlucky last week, but that positive regression won’t come against a strong Villa attack.Â
In the last meeting between these sides, Villa created 3.14 post shot expected goals and 2.23 non-penalty psxG, per fotmob.com.Â
Plus, West Ham will play this match on short rest after featuring in the Europa League on Thursday.Â
At the same time, Villa’s defense – even if manager Unai Emery opts for five at the back – should look tired after their Europa Conference League tie on Thursday.Â
West Ham’s attack has also looked solid at home when they have Lucas Paqueta in the lineup.Â
In 11 such matches, manager David Moyes’ side has created 1.43 expected goals per 90 minutes.Â
Plus, the Hammers face a Villa defense that’s looked vulnerable recently.Â
Since the calendar turned to 2024, Emery’s side has surrendered 1.79 expected goals per 90 minutes, according to fbref.com.Â
As a result, bettors should expect goals galore in Sunday’s match. Take over 3.5 at +100 or better.Â
Aston Villa FormÂ
March 14 vs. Ajax: 4-0, W (Europa Conference League)
March 10 vs. Tottenham: 0-4, L
March 7 at Ajax: 0-0, D (Europa Conference League)
March 2 at Luton Town: 3-2, W
Feb. 24 vs. Nottingham Forest: 4-2, W
West Ham Form
March 14 vs. Freiburg: 5-0, W (Europa League)
March 10 vs. Burnley: 2-2, D
March 7 at Freiburg: 0-1, L (Europa League)
March 2 at Everton: 3-1, W
Feb. 26 vs. Brentford: 4-2, W
EPL Match Schedule This Weekend
Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
Arsenal | Everton | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Emirates Stadium |
Man City | West Ham United | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Etihad Stadium |
Brentford | Newcastle United | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | GTech Community Stadium |
Brighton & Hove Albion | Manchester United | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Amex Stadium |
Burnley | Nottingham Forest | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Turf Moor |
Chelsea | Bournemouth | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Stamford Bridge |
Crystal Palace | Aston Villa | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Selhurst Park |
Liverpool | Wolves | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Anfield |
Luton Town | Fulham | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Kenilworth Road |
Sheffield United | Tottenham | May. 19 | 11:00 AM | Bramall Lane |
EPL Standings
Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential | Notes |
Manchester City | 27-7-3 | 88 | 60 | --- |
Arsenal FC | 27-5-5 | 86 | 61 | --- |
Liverpool FC | 23-10-4 | 79 | 43 | --- |
Aston Villa FC | 20-8-9 | 68 | 20 | --- |
Tottenham Hotspur | 19-6-12 | 63 | 10 | --- |
Chelsea FC | 17-9-11 | 60 | 13 | --- |
Newcastle United | 17-6-14 | 57 | 21 | --- |
Manchester United | 17-6-14 | 57 | -3 | --- |
West Ham United | 14-10-13 | 52 | -12 | --- |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 12-12-12 | 48 | -4 | --- |
Bournemouth | 13-9-15 | 48 | -12 | --- |
Crystal Palace | 12-10-15 | 46 | -6 | --- |
Wolves | 13-7-17 | 46 | -13 | --- |
Fulham FC | 12-8-17 | 44 | -8 | --- |
Everton | 13-9-15 | 40 | -10 | 8 Point Deduction |
Brentford | 10-9-18 | 39 | -7 | --- |
Nottingham Forest | 8-9-20 | 29 | -19 | 4 Point Deduction |
Luton Town | 6-8-23 | 26 | -31 | --- |
Burnley FC | 5-9-23 | 24 | -36 | --- |
Sheffield United | 3-7-27 | 16 | -66 | --- |
EPL ATS Records
Team | ATS Record | ATS Win Pct. | Home ATS Record | Home ATS Win Pct. | Road ATS Record | Road ATS Win Pct. |
Arsenal | 22-14-1 | .608 | 10-7-1 | .583 | 12-7 | .632 |
Aston Villa | 19-17-1 | .527 | 12-7 | .632 | 7-10-1 | .417 |
Bournemouth | 19-16-2 | .541 | 9-8-2 | .526 | 10-8 | .556 |
Brentford | 14-21-2 | .405 | 6-11-1 | .361 | 8-10-1 | .447 |
Brighton & Hove Albion | 15-20-2 | .432 | 8-9-1 | .472 | 7-11-1 | .395 |
Burnley | 18-19 | .486 | 5-13 | .278 | 13-6 | .684 |
Chelsea | 19-18 | .514 | 10-8 | .556 | 9-10 | .474 |
Crystal Palace | 20-17 | .541 | 9-9 | .500 | 11-8 | .579 |
Everton | 17-20 | .459 | 10-9 | .526 | 7-11 | .389 |
Fulham | 18-18-1 | .500 | 10-8-1 | .553 | 8-10 | .444 |
Liverpool | 18-19 | .486 | 10-8 | .556 | 8-11 | .421 |
Luton Town | 22-14-1 | .608 | 13-5 | .722 | 9-9-1 | .500 |
Manchester City | 19-18 | .514 | 8-10 | .444 | 11-8 | .579 |
Manchester United | 17-20 | .459 | 9-10 | .474 | 8-10 | .444 |
Newcastle United | 18-19 | .486 | 12-7 | .632 | 6-12 | .333 |
Nottingham Forest | 15-20-2 | .432 | 5-13-1 | .289 | 10-7-1 | .583 |
Sheffield United | 19-18 | .514 | 9-9 | .500 | 10-9 | .526 |
Tottenham Hotspur | 18-19 | .486 | 9-10 | .474 | 9-9 | .500 |
West Ham United | 19-18 | .514 | 12-7 | .632 | 7-11 | .389 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers | 18-19 | .486 | 9-10 | .474 | 9-9 | .500 |
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