- West Ham is a -0.5-goal favorite against Luton Town.
- West Ham earned a 2-1 road win in the previous meeting against Luton Town.
- Why the market is underrating one side on Saturday.
To close out David Moyes’ tenure at the London Stadium, West Ham welcomes Luton Town on Saturday.
Neither side enters this game in good form. The Hammers are winless in four league matches and lost 5-0 at Chelsea in their last game.
As for Luton Town, they’re winless in four as well and last drew Everton at home in their previous fixture.
Here’s a look at the EPL odds and my predictions for Saturday’s clash.
EPL Betting Odds – West Ham vs. Luton Town
- West Ham Moneyline: -125
- Luton Town Moneyline: +290
- Draw Moneyline: +310
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+105/-145)
Premier League Prediction – West Ham vs. Luton Town
West Ham to Win & Both Teams to Score (+180) | Total Over 3.5 Goals (+105)
Betting West Ham is quite uncomfortable, but there’s an argument to be made that they’re a good home side with proper rest.
Manager David Moyes’ side ran unlucky in their last home match against Liverpool based on underlying metrics.
Although the match finished 2-2, the Hammers won the post-shot expected goals battle 2.6 to 0.9.
The last time they played a home match with at least six days between games? February 26 vs. Brentford — a 4-2 home win where West Ham created 2.4 post-shot expected goals.
On Saturday, they’ll get a Luton Town side that has earned points in only six of 18 road games and has the worst road expected goal differential.
Plus, there are a few system matches on West Ham.
Since 2012-13, home favorites between +105 and -230 off a loss by three or more goals are 64-31 SU, including 9-4 this season.
Plus, dating back to the beginning of last season, home favorites between +105 and -200 off a loss are 57-25 SU, including 9-4 this season.
One more — since 2012-13, home favorites between +100 and -199 that closed a dog in their previous game are 51-22 SU in games 32-38.
At the same time, bettors should expect goals to flow in Saturday’s contest.
This season, Luton road fixtures are averaging 3.33 expected goals per 90 minutes. They’ve also scored in 16 of their last 17 games irrespective of venue.
However, West Ham’s attack should do well like in the past against bad defenses.
In seven home matches against sides 12th or worse in non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes, West Ham created 1.9 xG per 90 and scored at least twice five times.
For those reasons, back the over at plus money on Saturday with West Ham contributing most of the goals.
West Ham Form
May 5 at Chelsea: 0-5, L
April 27 vs. Liverpool: 2-2, D
April 21 at Crystal Palace: 2-5, L
April 18 vs. Leverkusen: 1-1, D (Europa League)
April 14 vs. Fulham: 0-2, L
Luton Town Form
May 3 vs. Everton: 1-1, D
April 27 at Wolves: 1-2, L
April 20 vs. Brentford: 1-5, L
April 13 at Man City: 1-5, L
April 6 vs. Bournemouth: 2-1, W
Upcoming EPL Match Schedule
| Home | Away | Date | Time (ET) | Location |
| Chelsea | Everton | Apr. 26 | 7:30 a.m. | Stamford Bridge |
| Southampton | Fulham | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. Mary's Stadium |
| Brighton | West Ham United | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Amex Stadium |
| Newcastle United | Ipswich Town | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | St. James' Park |
| Wolves | Leicester City | Apr. 26 | 10 a.m. | Molinneux |
| Bournemouth | Manchester United | Apr. 27 | 9 a.m. | Vitality Stadium |
| Liverpool | Tottenham | Apr. 27 | 11:30 a.m. | Anfield |
EPL Standings
| Team | Record (Wins-Draws-Losses) | Points | Goal Differential |
| Liverpool | 24-7-2 | 79 | 44 |
| Arsenal | 18-13-3 | 68 | 34 |
| Manchester City | 18-7-9 | 61 | 23 |
| Nottingham Forest | 18-6-9 | 60 | 14 |
| Newcastle United | 18-5-10 | 59 | 18 |
| Chelsea | 16-9-8 | 57 | 18 |
| Aston Villa | 16-9-9 | 57 | 5 |
| Bournemouth | 13-10-10 | 49 | 12 |
| Fulham | 13-9-11 | 48 | 3 |
| Brighton | 12-13-8 | 48 | 0 |
| Brentford | 13-7-13 | 46 | 6 |
| Crystal Palace | 11-12-11 | 45 | -4 |
| Everton | 8-14-11 | 38 | -6 |
| Manchester United | 10-8-15 | 38 | -8 |
| Wolves | 11-5-17 | 38 | -13 |
| Tottenham | 11-4-18 | 37 | 10 |
| West Ham | 9-9-15 | 36 | -18 |
| Ipswich Town | 4-9-20 | 21 | -38 |
| Leicester City | 4-6-23 | 18 | -46 |
| Southampton | 2-5-26 | 11 | -54 |
EPL ATS Records
| Team | ATS Record | ATS% | Home ATS Record | Home ATS% | Road ATS Record | Road ATS% |
| Arsenal | 12-16-6 | 44.1% | 4-9-4 | 35.3% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% |
| Aston Villa | 15-18-1 | 45.6% | 7-9-1 | 44.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% |
| Bournemouth | 18-13-2 | 57.6% | 8-8-0 | 50.0% | 10-5-2 | 64.7% |
| Brentford | 20-11-2 | 63.6% | 10-7-0 | 58.8% | 10-4-2 | 68.8% |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 7-9-0 | 43.8% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
| Chelsea | 12-19-2 | 39.4% | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% |
| Crystal Palace | 18-12-4 | 58.8% | 7-6-4 | 52.9% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Everton | 17-11-5 | 59.1% | 8-7-2 | 52.9% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Fulham | 18-12-3 | 5.1% | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 9-4-3 | 65.6% |
| Ipswich Town | 13-18-2 | 42.4% | 4-13-0 | 23.5% | 9-5-2 | 62.5% |
| Leicester City | 15-17-1 | 47.0% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 9-6-1 | 59.4% |
| Liverpool | 15-16-2 | 48.5% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% | 9-8-0 | 52.9% |
| Manchester City | 12-22-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% | 6-11-0 | 35.3% |
| Manchester United | 13-16-4 | 45.5% | 7-8-2 | 47.1% | 6-8-2 | 43.8% |
| Newcastle United | 19-13-1 | 59.1% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| Nottingham Forest | 21-12-0 | 63.6% | 10-6-0 | 62.5% | 11-6-0 | 64.7% |
| Southampton | 12-18-3 | 40.9% | 3-12-1 | 21.9% | 9-6-2 | 58.8% |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 12-20-1 | 37.9% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 6-10-0 | 37.5% |
| West Ham United | 17-15-1 | 53.0% | 6-10-1 | 38.2% | 11-5-0 | 68.8% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 17-13-3 | 56.1% | 7-7-2 | 50.0% | 10-6-1 | 61.8% |
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