- West Ham is a -0.5-goal home favorite against Wolves.
- West Ham has won six straight EPL Monday matches at London Stadium.
- My West Ham vs. Wolves prediction is the West Ham moneyline.
To cap off the Premier League Matchday 14 slate, a desperate West Ham side hosts Wolves.
West Ham dropped all three points in a 3-1 defeat at Leicester City on Tuesday. Despite winning the match on expected goals, the Hammers’ result leaves them 14th in the league table.
Wolves suffered an equally embarrassing 4-0 defeat at Everton on Matchday 13. Currently, Gary O’Neil’s side sits 19th in the league table, three points from safety.
Check out the Premier League odds and my West Ham vs. Wolves prediction.
West Ham vs. Wolves Odds, Premier League
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves | +0.5 (-120) | 2.5 (-175) | +275 |
| West Ham | -0.5 (-120) | 2.5 (+125) | -110 |
| Draw | +270 |
West Ham vs. Wolves Prediction
Based on Wolves’ terrible road metrics and the expected positive regression for West Ham, my West Ham vs. Wolves prediction is the West Ham Moneyline (-110).
Don’t let the 3-1 scoreline at Leicester fool you. West Ham finished unlucky in every meaningful metric.
Expected goals finished 3.1-1.7 for West Ham. Post-shot xG finished 3.08-2.97. Big scoring chances finished 7-5 for Leicester.
At worst, West Ham should have earned a result at the King Power Stadium.
If that occurs, this line is surely closer to -130 or even -135 against a Wolves side with the fourth-worst expected goal differential in the league.
West Ham are also a positive regression candidate entering this match.
Julen Lopetegui, who needs a win here to save his job, has guided West Ham to a -9 goal differential vs. a -4.9 expected goal differential.
That creates a nice spot for the Hammers. This season, they’ve closed a market favorite south of +140 only three times, including twice against teams with a bottom-five xGDiff.
In those two matches – the second came on Tuesday at Leicester City – West Ham dominated.
Even if you believe a draw is likelier in that match, West Ham thrashed Ipswich Town 4-1 as -115 home favorites with a 3.6-0.6 edge on expected goals.
History also likes this spot to back the Hammers.
Since 2012, favorites between -143 and +113 are 74-28 (72.5%), assuming three factors:
- The favorite’s margin in the last head-to-head meeting fell between +0 and +2
- Both teams’ previous game margin falls between -4 and -1
Just since 2021, those teams are 30-9, a 77% hit rate.
West Ham finished a tad lucky in their trip to Molineux last year, but they beat Wolves 3-0 at home with a +1.1 edge on post-shot xG, per fotmob.com.
As a result, this price is far too short on the hosts. Grab West Ham to earn all three points.
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