The Boston Red Sox (+230) visit Ed Smith Stadium to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-300) on Saturday, March 16, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Sarasota, FL.
This season, the Red Sox are 9-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 10-5 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +230 |
| Orioles | -300 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Saturday‘s matchup with 59.8% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+3.80 Units / 190% ROI)
- David Hamilton has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.10 Units / 74% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.95 Units / 98% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+0.90 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 73% ROI)
- Adley Rutschman has hit the Hits Under in his last 3 games (+4.70 Units / 100% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+3.70 Units / 185% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+2.75 Units / 79% ROI)
- Heston Kjerstad has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 62% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 66 away games (+7.03 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 61 away games (+5.05 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+1.53 Units / 24% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 100 of their last 162 games (+33.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 89 of their last 152 games (+23.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.60 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+6.72 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 46 of their last 81 games (+5.39 Units / 6% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Red Sox are 11-7 against the Run Line (+4 Units / 18.92% ROI).
- 9-8 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.16 Units / 0.65% ROI
- 6-12 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.13 Units / -36.19% ROI
- 12-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.37 Units / 26.98% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Orioles are 10-5 against the Run Line (+4.94 Units / 27.34% ROI).
- 13-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.95 Units / 57.51% ROI
- 7-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.59 Units / -3.58% ROI
- 7-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.67 Units / -4.04% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cooper Criswell has limited playing time.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corbin Burnes threw fastballs down 63% of the time (164/262) in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes located his fastball inside 59% of the time (156/262) in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes threw his cutter 55% of the time (1,677/3,079) in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CUT; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
88 of Corbin Burnes’ 200 strikeouts (44%) came on cutters in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 4% — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Red Sox were just 1-72 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Red Sox are just 3-138 (.021) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Red Sox were 59-4 (.937) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .859.
The Red Sox are just 12-20 (.375) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Orioles are 54-41 (.568) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Orioles were 33-19 (.635) after a road win in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Orioles were 60-38 (.612) after a win in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Orioles were 15-6 (.714) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters slugged .266 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Red Sox batted .182 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
The Red Sox batted .300 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
The Red Sox batted .185 with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .172.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles are 193-126 (.601) against the run line (12.5% ROI) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .493.
The Orioles won 62% of games in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Orioles have a winning percentage of 56% on the road since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Orioles were 36-16 (.692) against the run line (28.5% ROI) after a road win in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .498.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .265 against Red Sox pitchers with the shift in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Red Sox pitchers threw over to first base 120 times in the 2023 season — 2nd fewest in MLB.
Opponents had a swing rate of 49% against the Red Sox pitchers in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Red Sox have won 43% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
The Orioles won 53% of road games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .198 against Orioles pitchers with the shift in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Orioles pitchers won 41% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Orioles have won 40% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Orioles vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Gunnar Henderson (Baltimore Orioles): Oblique, Out
- Felix Bautista (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Terrin Vavra (Baltimore Orioles): Shoulder, Out
- John Means (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, Out
- Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, Out
- Shintaro Fujinami (Baltimore Orioles): Personal, Out
- David Hamilton (Boston Red Sox): Thumb, Out
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Out
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, Out
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Out
- Dinelson Lamet (Boston Red Sox): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Connor Wong (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Jarren Duran (Boston Red Sox): Toe, Out
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Lat, Out
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