Sports Betting Picks Today: System Bets & Predictions

Below, bettors can find sports betting picks and predictions for historically profitable betting systems. 

These systems range all the way from the NFL to the English Premier League while including predictions for both the NBA and NHL regular and postseason. 

Sports betting odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

Sports Betting Picks — System Matches

NFL: Early Divisional Underdogs, Low Total

When bettors are faced with divisional matchups in September or October, there’s a particular scenario when it’s wise to take the dog. 

Since the 2003-04 season, divisional dogs at +5.5 or shorter with a total between 32 and 43.5 points are 139-102-7 ATS (57.7%). 

This system works best in September. In that month, such teams are 80-50-5 ATS for a 19.6% return on investment. 

Current matches: Las Vegas Raiders, Carolina Panthers (Sept. 8)

NFL: Underdogs Following a Blowout Loss

Time to hold your nose and trust an underdog that just gave you no reason to trust them. 

Since the 2003-04 season, dogs that lost by 20 or more points as underdogs are 55.9% ATS in the next game. 

Within this system, it’s best to back the underdog against an opponent off a loss by 20 or fewer points. Under that circumstance, dogs are 125-78-7 ATS for a 18.8% ROI. 

Current matches: No current matches. 

NBA: Road, Conference Favorites Off Bad Loss as Favorites

Despite playing away from home, these teams excel early off an unexpected defeat. 

Since 2004-05, visiting favorites playing a conference game that lost their last game by 15 or more points are 92-60-5 ATS (60.5%), assuming they closed a favorite in their last game. 

Oddly, the system works better when their opponent is coming off a win. On those occasions, the favorite is 54-29-2 ATS for a 25.1% ROI. 

Current matches: No current matches. 

NBA: Postseason Home Favorites Off Bad Loss (Conference Game)

The dictionary definition of buying low: usually, it’s wise to take a home favorite immediately following a blowout loss. 

In this instance, that loss is defined as one by at least 10 or more points. Since the 2004-05 season, these teams are 143-106-5 ATS (57.4%). 

Interestingly, this system works best later in the postseason. Sample the 33 conference final games in which there was a match and bettors will find those teams are 24-9 ATS. 

Current matches: No current matches. 

NHL: Buy Low on Home Favorites — Regular or Postseason

A number of factors comprise this system, but there’s a sizable sample that is historically profitable. 

Bettors should look to play home favorites in the regular or postseason playing a non-conference game, assuming three other factors:

• The team made the postseason the previous year
• The team’s closing moneyline is between -230 and -104
• The team’s losing streak is two, three or four games. 

Under those circumstances, such home favorites are 275-142 (65.9%) against the moneyline for a 10% return on investment. 

Current matches: No current matches. 

NHL: Buy Low on Home Teams, Sell High on Road Teams

This system is profitable historically both from a moneyline and spread standpoint and works either with a home favorite or underdog. 

Take these home teams when they lost the previous game by three or more goals as a favorite against a conference foe that won by at least two goals in their previous game. 

Under those circumstances, teams are 180-101 SU and 141-140 ATS. Within the latter sample, there’s a higher ROI when the team closes at -1.5 compared to +1.5 (17.3% vs. 8.4%). 

Current matches: No current matches

EPL: Short Home Favorites Off a Loss

This system samples Premier League home favorites since 2012-13 sitting between -200 and +105 on the three-way moneyline. 

Over that span, teams off a loss are 242-161 SU (60%) for a 6.1% return on investment. When they lose by three or more goals, they jump to 65-31 SU. 

Just in the last two seasons, these teams are 58-25 SU. Over that timeframe, teams are 18-5 SU off a loss by three or more goals. 

Current matches: No current matches

EPL: Blind Bet Big Underdogs

A lot goes into this system, but it has proved profitable every season since 2012-13. 

Underdogs that closed a dog in their previous game against a team that closed a favorite are 149-90-18 ATS, assuming three factors:

• The juice on the spread is between -150 and +200
• The spread is +1.5 or +2
• The team’s winning percentage is between 0% and 49%

Current matches: No current matches

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