UFC Abu Dhabi: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov Fight Card, Predictions, & Odds

A top-flight bantamweight clash headlines the UFC Fight Night card in Abu Dhabi this weekend, as No. 2-ranked contender Cory Sandhagen faces the No. 11-ranked challenger Umar Nurmegoemdov inside the Etihad Arena, Yas Island in the United Arab Emirates.

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Both are currently on their respective winning streaks, but due to his undefeated record, Nurmagomedov is the favorite to win the match with -300 UFC odds, while Sandhagen, despite his higher ranking, will be the betting underdog with +245 odds. The winner of this exciting bout is expected to be included in championship conversations.

Cory Sandhagen Recent Fight Results

Sandhagen made his UFC debut in January 2018 and TKO’d Austin Arnett in two rounds. Since then, he won six of his next eight fights to earn his shot for the UFC interim bantamweight title against Petr Yan in October 2021 at UFC 267. However, Sandhagen sustained a unanimous decision defeat to Yan.

Following that loss, he went on a three-fight streak and beat Song Yadong in September 2022 via fourth-round TKO, Marlon Vera in March 2023 via split decision, and Rob Font in August via unanimous decision. These victories have maintained Sandhagen’s place at the top of the rankings.

Umar Nurmagomedov Recent Fight Results

Nurmagomedov was a former Battle on Volga and GFC champion before he was signed by the UFC in 2020. He had a dream debut against Sergey Morozov, who he submitted in the second round in January 2021. He sustained this momentum and won his next four fights inside the octagon.

The 28-year-old undefeated athlete added Brian Kelleher (in March 2022 via first-round submission), Nate Maness (in June 2022 via unanimous decision), Raoni Barcelos (in January 2023 via first-round knockout), and most recently, Bekzat Almakhan (in March via unanimous decision) to his victim list and earn a spot in the top 15 rankings of the bantamweight division.

Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov: Tale of the Tape

Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov: Fight Analysis

The tale of the tape between Sandhgane and Nurmagomedov favors the former because he will have 3 inches of height, 1 inch of reach, and 1 inch of leg reach advantage against the latter. Additionally, Sandhagen has a slightly better finish rate of 59% against Nurmagomedov at 53%.

Both have an MMA fight style stylistically, but their base is quite the opposite. Sandhagen is a striker who likes to stand and trade against his opponent. He also has decent grappling and wrestling skills that can prevent takedowns and submission attempts.

On the other hand, Nurmagomedov has a solid Sambo background, meaning he’s more of a grappler and prefers to drag his opponent down the mat, work his way into a ground-and-pound finish, or force a submission attempt against them.

The apparent key strategy for Sandhagen for this fight is to keep the match standing and impose his striking superiority against Nurmagomedov. Furthermore, he needs to prevent takedowns from the Dagestani and steer out of every submission he attempts.

Meanwhile, Nurmagomedov should immediately close the distance and shoot for early takedowns to take advantage of their dry skin (holding and grabbing an opponent is much easier with dry skin in grappling) and work his way into a favorable position on the ground.

I think Nurmagomedov’s grappling skills will be a massive problem for Sandhagen. A submission win is highly possible, especially since Sandhagen already suffered a submission loss to Aljamain Sterling in June 2020 unless he times a perfect counter on the takedown attempts.

Official Prediction: Submission victory for Umar Nurmagomedov.