UFC Austin: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan Fight Card, Predictions, & Odds

Two ranked UFC lightweight contenders will battle for supremacy inside the Moody Center in Austin this weekend as No. 4-ranked Beneil Dariush (22-5-1) meets No. 8-ranked Arman Tsarukyan in the main event of the card.

Giddy up Austin, we’re coming for ya! 🤠

[ B2YB @OriginBJJ ] pic.twitter.com/yTcUixbz2N

— UFC (@ufc) November 27, 2023

Due to his two-fight win streak, Tsarukyan will be the betting favorite in UFC odds at -200 against Dariush, who is at +200 because he is coming off a TKO loss against Charles Oliveira in his most recent fight.

Aside from the contrasting results in their bouts, the other two factors that side with Tsarukyan in the upcoming showdown with Dariush are a better record and age difference. Tsarukyan only has three losses on his record and is seven years younger than Dariush.

Beneil Dariush Recent Fight Results

Before joining the UFC in 2014, Dariush was an undefeated fighter with six wins and five stoppages. He made his promotional debut in January 2014 and submitted Charlie Brenneman in the opening round to start his UFC campaign.

Since then, his next 12 fights were a mix of up-and-down results, as he won seven, lost four, and had a draw from April 2014 to March 2018. After the four-year stretch of roller-coaster results, he scored eight straight victories to earn his spot in the division’s upper echelon.

Dariush’s most notable wins during the streak were against Thiago Moisés, Drew Dober, Tony Ferguson, and Mateusz Gamrot. He was on his way to a title shot, but Oliveira snapped his streak to delay his chance for UFC gold.

Expect the unexpected when @BeneilDariush is in the Octagon 🤯

He headlines against Arman Tsarukyan this Saturday at #UFCAustin! pic.twitter.com/AeKUswagHg

— UFC (@ufc) November 27, 2023

Arman Tsarukyan Recent Fight Results

Tsarukyan had an impressive record of 13 wins and only one loss when he was signed by the UFC in 2019. But his debut in the promotion was against Islam Makhachev. Tsarukyan was welcomed with a unanimous decision defeat.

But the 27-year-old quickly bounced back and accumulated five straight wins against Olivier Aubin-Mercier, Davi Ramos, Matt Frevola, Christos Giagos, and Joel Alvarez to crack a spot in the top-10 rankings of the 155-pound weight class.

His ascent to the top-five rankings was stopped by Gamrot in June 2022 after a unanimous decision loss. Since then, Tsarukyan returned to his winning ways in back-to-back victories against Damir Ismagulov and Joaquim Silva.

Ready to climb up the rankings 📈

#8 @ArmanUFC takes on #4 Beneil Dariush Saturday at #UFCAustin pic.twitter.com/lBJGnIYVgP

— UFC (@ufc) November 28, 2023

Beneil Dariush vs. Arman Tsarukyan: Tale of the Tape

Beneil Dariush vs. Arman Tsarukyan: Fight Analysis

The tale of the tape between Dariush and Tsarukyan shows a slight advantage for the former, as he is 3 inches taller and has an inch of leg reach advantage against the latter. Meanwhile, Tsarukyan has an inch reach upper hand, a better record, and a higher finishing rate.

One big difference is their age, as Dariush is 34 years old and Tsarukyan is 27. This is a double-edged sword because it can be an advantage for Dariush regarding experience. Still, it can also be an edge for Tsarukyan because of his youth, and arguably, he’s still in his prime form.

Stylistically, both are well-rounded fighters with a good distribution of wins in terms of TKO/KOs, submissions, and decision victories. Dariush has a mixed martial arts approach and his biggest percentage of wins are via decisions.

On the other hand, most of Tsarukyan’s wins were via TKO/KO because his fighting base is kickboxing. Solid evidence of this is the significant strike numbers, where he has slightly better numbers of 3.82 landed per minute (compared to Dariush’s 3.79) and 1.91 significant strikes absorbed per minute (against Dariush’s 2.63).

Dariush has the better grappling numbers of 80% takedown defense (against Tsarukyan’s 75%) and 0.88 submission average per 15 minutes (compared to Tsarukyan’s 0). This will be the critical difference and factor in this upcoming lightweight clash.

Through Tsarukyan’s power and youth, expect Dariush to use his superior wrestling and grappling skills to nullify this advantage. He used the same approach against Dober and Frank Camacho, taking them down and maneuvering his way into a submission.

Although he has the advantage in grappling, Dariush’s striking skills are highly underrated, and he also has the power to sleep anyone in the division, especially if he lands a clean and solid punch. But submitting Tsarukyan is the best route to a victory.

Official Prediction: Submission victory for Beneil Dariush.