UFC St. Louis: Lewis vs. Nascimento Fight Card, Predictions, & Odds

The heavyweight clash between No. 12-ranked Derrick Lewis and No. 15-ranked challenger Rodrigo Nascimento will headline the UFC card this weekend. This crucial matchup will take place inside the Enterprise Center in St. Louis.

St. Louis, WE ARE HERE 🚨

Fight week in The Lou has just begun #UFCStLouis pic.twitter.com/q3o0pKnCzD

— UFC (@ufc) May 6, 2024

Although he is coming off a unanimous decision defeat in his previous fight, Lewis is still the betting favorite in the UFC odds at -150, while Nascimento, who currently rides a three-fight win streak, is the +125 betting underdog.

Derrick Lewis Recent Fight Results

Lewis is a 10-year UFC veteran with 28 fights under the promotion. He has an impressive record of 18 wins and 10 losses, which earned him a crack at the UFC title in November 2018 against Daniel Cormier and an interim title fight with Ciryl Gane in August 2021.

“The Black Beast” failed to capitalize on both opportunities and sustained losses in both title fights. In his last five fights, Lewis scored only one victory over Marcos Rogério de Lima but dropped the other four to Tai Tuivasa, Sergei Pavlovich, Serghei Spivac, and Jailton Almeida.

Rodrigo Nascimento Recent Fight Results

After going undefeated in his first six professional MMA fights, Nascimento joined Dana White’s Contender Series in July 2019 and scored a first-round submission of Michal Martinek to earn a roster spot in the Las Vegas-based promotion.

Since then, he has competed in six bouts inside the octagon and accumulated an impressive record of four wins, one defeat, and one no-contest. His three consecutive wins were against Tanner Bosser and Ilir Latifi, and his most recent victory came against Don’Tale Mayes in November.

Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento: Tale of the Tape

Derrick Lewis vs. Rodrigo Nascimento: Fight Analysis

On paper, the tale of the tape between Lewis and Nascimento is almost the same because they are only separated by an inch and 0.5 inches in height, reach, and leg reach. The former will enjoy 1 inch of height and half an inch of leg reach at 6-foot-3 and 43.5 inches compared to the former’s 6-foot-2 frame with 43 inches of reach.

Meanwhile, Nascimento will have an edge of 1 inch in reach of 80 inches versus Lewis’ 79 inches. Lewis has a higher finish rate of 81% than Nascimento’s 73%. Furthermore, the former UFC heavyweight title challenger has more experience, with 39 professional bouts against Nascimento’s 12.

The biggest difference between the two is their fighting style because Lewis is a brawler and a monster on his feet, while Nascimento is a grappling wizard with elite submission skills. This means that this fight will be another classic battle between a striker and a grappler.

Lewis will be banking on his one-shot knockout power, which made him the record holder for the most knockout wins in UFC history with 14. Once he lands a clean punch to his opponent’s head or body, it’s almost automatic that they would fold or be sent to the shadow realm.

His biggest chance of winning is to keep the fight as a standup battle and have a quick start, much like what he did against de Lima when he scored a 33-second TKO finish. As long as the fight progresses in the later rounds, the slimmer his chance to take the win because his gas tank is not also built for a five-round match.

This is the exact opposite of what Nascimento’s fight plan should be. He needs to avoid the power shots of Lewis, especially in the early stages of the fight. The Brazilian contender needs to secure the takedown to take away the threat of Lewis’ power and simultaneously gas him out. His priority is to drag him down the canvas and maneuver his way into a submission win.

Official Prediction: Submission victory for Rodrigo Nascimento