- Dortmund is a -0.5-goal favorite against Atletico Madrid.
- Atletico earned a 2-1 home win in the first leg but have struggled away from home.
- Why bettors should fade Borussia Dortmund when they’re a possession-heavy team.
Ahead of Tuesday’s Champions League second leg in Dortmund, I’m here to offer a Dortmund vs. Atletico Madrid prediction.
Atletico bossed Dortmund in the first leg at home. Manager Diego Simeone’s side earned a 2-1 home win thanks to a 2-0 first half at the Wanda Metropolitano.
That marks two straight wins for Atletico in the Champions League. However, they’ve earned all three points in only one road match this Champions League.
Here’s a look at the Champions League odds and my prediction for the second leg.
Champions League Odds – Dortmund vs. Atletico Madrid
- Borussia Dortmund Moneyline: +125
- Atletico Madrid Moneyline: +195
- Draw Moneyline: +260
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-160/+115)
Champions League Prediction – Dortmund vs. Atletico Madrid
LEAN Atletico Madrid Spread (+0.5, -160)
It’s a steep price to lay with the visitors, and I would only bet this if it gets to -145.
That said, bettors received a glimpse of what this game is going to look like in the second half.
Dortmund are going to have to go for it and try to break down a low Atletico defensive block without their star striker Sebastian Haller.
Dortmund held 72% of the ball in the second half of the first leg. They only created 0.59 expected goals and 0.97 post-shot expected goals.
At the same time, Atletico’s counterattack was quite threatening. With a 2-0 lead, they created 0.81 expected goals and 1.36 psxG in the second half, per fotmob.com.
Although Atletico has less-than-desirable road form – they’ve earned points in three of seven against Spain’s top half – Dortmund have struggled against good teams.
The German outfit ranks 21st continentally in expected goal differential per 90 minutes. Sample 10 games against teams 20th or better and bettors will find they’re 2-3-5 (W-D-L).
Of that sample, both wins came when Dortmund held a minority of the possession.
In the lone Champions League fixture where Dortmund held a majority of possession and faced a top-20 xGDiff side in Europe, they drew Milan 0-0.
The underlying metrics back up that performance as they posted a -0.6 expected goal differential and psxGDiff.
Lastly, I like backing Atletico here because Dortmund’s defense will always be at risk of conceding.
In that home Champions League match against Milan, Dortmund held 57% of the ball and conceded 1.6 expected goals.
With their defense always at risk, back the visitors to do no worse than a result in Germany and reach the semifinals.
Dortmund Form
April 13 at Monchengladbach: 2-1, W
April 10 at Atletico Madrid: 1-2, L (Champions League)
April 6 vs. Stuttgart: 0-1, L
March 30 at Bayern Munich: 2-0, W
March 17 vs. Frankfurt: 3-1, W
Atletico Madrid Form
April 13 vs. Girona: 3-1, W
April 10 vs. Dortmund: 2-1, W (Champions League)
April 1 at Villarreal: 2-1, W
March 17 vs. Barcelona: 0-3, L
March 13 vs. Inter: 2-1, W (Champions League)
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