- Atletico Madrid is a -0.5 goal favorite at Feyenoord.
- Atletico won their first head-to-head meeting 3-2 at home.
- The Spanish side has struggled to win in recent road UCL games.
Before Tuesday’s UEFA Champions League fixture, I’m set to provide a Feyenoord vs. Atletico Madrid prediction.
Back on Matchday Two in Madrid, Atletico claimed all three points in a thrilling 3-2 victory. However, Feyenoord won the expected goals battle rather convincingly.
Now, the sides meet again in the Netherlands as they jockey for placement in Group E.
Entering this game, Atletico Madrid leads the group with eight points, while Feyenoord sit third on six points.
Here’s how the Champions League odds shape up for the meeting at Feyenoord Stadium.
Feyenoord vs. Atletico Madrid Odds
- Feyenoord to Win: +160
- Atletico Madrid to Win: +155
- Feyenoord vs. Atletico Madrid Draw: +250
- The Feyenoord vs. Atletico Madrid Over/Under is 2.5 Goals
Feyenoord vs. Atletico Madrid Prediction
Based on recent trends, the prediction for Feyenoord vs. Atlético Madrid is the Feyenoord Draw, No Bet (-120).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.
I recognize it’s essentially a pick ‘em on the three-way moneyline, but Feyenoord should be a favorite in this match.
When these sides met on October 4, the Eredivisie side lost 3-2 but earned a 2.46 to 0.84 victory on expected goals, per fotmob.com.
Even if you go by expected goals on target – these are generally worth more when you remove the possibility of a blocked shot – Feyenoord earned a 3.19 to 1.83 victory.
Most impressive is that Feyenoord accomplished that feat without talisman Santiago Gimenez, a prolific scoring threat with two goals in two UCL games.
Even if you set aside those metrics, this is a Madrid side that has historically struggled to earn road wins in the Champions League.
Over the last two seasons, manager Diego Simeone’s side is 0-2-3 (W-D-L). In those five matches, they’ve never produced a non-penalty expected goal differential greater than 0.3.
Just in their trip to Lazio – a side I actually rate behind Feyenoord – Atletico lost the expected goals battle in a 1-1 draw.
That will undoubtedly provide a boost to Feyenoord, who is unbeaten at home this season.
Just in two Champions League matches, they’re 2-0-0 with a +1.1 non-penalty expected goal differential per 90.
Back Feyenoord so long as they remain available at -130 or better on the draw, no bet line.
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