- Real Madrid is a -0.5-goal favorite against Napoli.
- Madrid earned all three points in the first meeting in Naples.
- Manager Carlo Ancelotti’s side faces a long injury list.
Before Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League fixture, I’m set to provide a Real Madrid vs. Napoli prediction.
When these sides met back on Matchday 2, it was one-way traffic in favor of Madrid. Although the scoreline finished 3-2, Napoli benefitted from a penalty kick.
Non-penalty expected goals finished in favor of Madrid, too, with the visitors claiming a 1.48-1.18 advantage.
Entering this game, Madrid leads Group C with 12 points, while Napoli sit second on seven points.
Here’s how the Champions League odds shape up for the meeting at the Santiago Bernabeu.
Real Madrid vs. Napoli Odds
- Real Madrid to Win: -120
- Napoli to Win: +300
- Real Madrid vs. Napoli Draw: +280
- The Real Madrid vs. Napoli Over/Under is 2.5 Goals
Real Madrid vs. Napoli Prediction
Based on recent trends, the prediction for Real Madrid vs. Napoli is the Napoli Goal Line (+0.5, -110).
My prediction is based on up-to-date player injuries for both teams, expected goal trends and recent player performances.
Fading a Madrid side perfect in group play is daunting, but they face an uphill climb on Wednesday.
Los Blancos will operate without key attacker Vinicius Junior, midfielders Aurelien Tchouameni and Eduardo Camavinga, defender Eder Militao and goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois.
Those are heavy absences to overcome against a Napoli team returning to full health.
Following an extended absence, Victor Osimhen will likely return to the Starting XI Wednesday.
That, along with the return of midfielder Piotr Zielinski, should bolster a Napoli attack against a Madrid defense sixth in La Liga in non-penalty expected goals against, per fbref.com.
Further, Madrid’s defense has fallen off considerably in European play. Over their last three matches, they’ve surrendered 1.12 npxG per 90 minutes.
This is also a Napoli side that has run pretty unlucky this season.
Through 13 Serie A fixtures, they own a +12 goal differential compared to a +13.4 expected goal differential.
In four Champions League matches it’s a +1 goal differential against a +1.2 expected goal differential.
As a result, take the Italian side to earn a result so long as they remain available at -115 or better.
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