- Bayern Munich is a -1.5-goal favorite against Lazio.
- Lazio hold a 1-0 aggregate advantage over the German giants from the first leg.
- Why bettors should expect the Italian side to struggle early.
Before Tuesday’s Champions League second leg in Munich, I’m here to offer a Bayern Munich vs. Lazio prediction.
The Italian outfit captured a 1-0 win as home underdogs in the first leg and are +185 to advance to the quarterfinals.
As for Bayern Munich, they’re still a prohibitive favorite (-375) to reach the quarterfinals.
Here’s a look at the UCL odds along with my best bet for Tuesday’s second leg.
UCL Betting Odds – Bayern Munich vs. Lazio
- Bayern Munich Moneyline: -350
- Lazio Moneyline: +950
- Draw Moneyline: +475
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+135/-190)
UCL Prediction – Bayern Munich vs. Lazio
Same Game Parlay: Bayern Munich 1H Moneyline & Lazio 1H Team Total Under 0.5 (-115)
Trusting Bayern Munich early is definitely worrisome, but they essentially need to score once for this to hit.
When these sides met in Italy, Lazio accomplished nothing early. Manager Maurizio Sarri’s side produced only 0.17 expected goals, including 0.02 post-shot xG, per fotmob.com.
If that’s what they produce at home, I’m worried about what they look like on the road, especially given their road performances in the group stage.
In a trip to Atletico Madrid – the closest comparison to Bayern Munich – Lazio produced only 0.56 xG and 0.09 psxG in the first half.
Across all three first halves in the group stage – Atletico Madrid, Feyenoord, Celtic – Lazio combined to create only 1.14 xG and 1.04 psxG.
However, 46% and 89% of those totals came against last place Celtic.
Plus, Bayern’s last home match against RB Leipzig saw them surrender only 0.12 xG and zero psxG in the first half, so it’s reasonable to assume they’ll keep a clean sheet.
Thus, if Bayern can notch a goal early, they should enter halftime with an advantage.
Given Lazio have surrendered a first half goal in all three road UCL games this season – they’ve lost two of three road first halves – that feels like a doable task for Bayern Munich.
Bet this same game parlay to -125.
Bayern Munich Form
March 1 at Freiburg: 2-2, D
Feb. 24 vs. RB Leipzig: 2-1, W
Feb. 18 at Bochum: 2-3, L
Feb. 14 at Lazio: 0-1, L (Champions League)
Feb. 10 at Leverkusen: 0-3, L
Lazio Form
March 1 vs. AC Milan: 0-1, L
Feb. 26 at Fiorentina: 1-2, L
Feb. 22 at Torino: 2-0, W
Feb. 18 vs. Bologna: 1-2, L
Feb. 14 vs. Bayern Munich: 1-0, W (Champions League)
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