Paris Saint-Germain vs. Real Sociedad Prediction, Odds, Pick | Champions League Match Preview

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PSG's Kylian Mbappe reacts after missing a chance to score during the Champions League group F soccer match between Paris Saint-Germain and Borussia Dortmund, at the Parc des Princes stadium in Paris, France, Tuesday, Sept. 19, 2023.
(Michel Euler/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Feb 12, 2024, 8:27 PM
  • Paris Saint-Germain is a -0.5-goal favorite against Real Sociedad.
  • PSG finished the group stage as runners-up in Group F.
  • Sociedad proved a tough underdog in the group stage.

Below, bettors can find my Paris Saint-Germain vs. Real Sociedad prediction for Wednesday’s Champions League fixture. 

PSG, a finalist in this competition during the 2019-20 UEFA Champions League, finished second in the group of death to Borussia Dortmund. 

As for Real Sociedad, they earned two points against Inter Milan in Group D on their way to capturing a group win. 

Here’s a look at the UCL odds for the first leg of this knockout tie, along with my best bet. 

UCL Betting Odds – Paris Saint-Germain vs. Real Sociedad

  • Paris Saint-Germain Moneyline: -155
  • Real Sociedad Moneyline: +450
  • Draw Moneyline: +275
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-120/-120)

UCL Prediction – Paris Saint-Germain vs. Real Sociedad

LEAN PSG Moneyline (-155)/ Target PSG Live

In terms of how I evaluate the pre-match odds, I think both of these statements are true:

  1. I have zero interest in betting Real Sociedad
  2. The market is overrating Paris Saint Germain

Sociedad proved a pesky underdog in the group stage, earning points in both head-to-head meetings with Inter Milan.

However, they’ll likely operate without talisman Mikel Oyarzabal on Wednesday. This season, Oyarzabal leads Sociedad in non-penalty expected goals. 

Key defensive players Alvaro Odriozola and Kieran Tierney are also definitely out for Sociedad. Without those wing backs, I question how they defend Ousmane Dembele and Kylian Mbappe. 

Plus, Sociedad has struggled in their road matches this season against Spain’s best sides. 

In trips to Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid and Athletic Bilbao, Sociedad is 0-3 straight up while allowing 1.57 non-penalty post shot expected goals per 90, per fbref.com. 

However, bettors have seen PSG struggle to break down low blocks previously, so I expect there’s a chance to get in on them live at a lessened price. 

In their three home UCL group matches, PSG created six non-penalty post-shot expected goals, per fotmob.com. 

Of that total, 74.5% came after halftime. 

If Sociedad manages to take a lead early, I’ll bet PSG +0.5 live at -140 or better. 

Assuming they don’t. I’ll take PSG’s moneyline, assuming they’re -110 or better. 

Paris Saint-Germain Form 

Feb. 10 vs. Lille: 3-1, W

Feb. 7 vs. Brest: 3-1, W (Coupe de France)

Feb. 2 at Strasbourg: 2-1, W

Jan. 28 vs. Brest: 2-2, D

Jan. 20 at Orleans: 4-1, W (Coupe de France)

Real Sociedad Form

Feb. 10 vs. Osasuna: 0-1, L

Feb. 6 at Mallorca: 0-0, D

Feb. 3 at Girona: 0-0, D

Jan. 27 vs. Rayo Vallecano: 0-0, D

Jan. 23 at Celta Vigo: 2-1, W (Copa Del Rey)

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.