Bayern Munich vs. Lazio Prediction, Odds, Pick | Champions League Match Preview

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Bayern's Harry Kane is in action during the Champions League group A soccer match between Bayern Munich and Manchester United at the Allianz Arena stadium in Munich, Germany, Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2023.
(Matthias Schrader/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Feb 12, 2024, 4:48 PM
  • Bayern Munich is a -0.5-goal favorite against Lazio.
  • Bayern earned two wins over Lazio in the 2020-21 Champions League group stage.
  • Why bettors should fade the Lazio attack early at home.

I’m here to offer a Bayern Munich vs. Lazio prediction ahead of Wednesday’s Champions League match in Rome

Visitors Bayern enter this game with a bad taste in their mouth following a 3-0 road defeat to Leverkusen. In terms of their UCL record, Bayern finished atop Group A. 

As for Lazio, they secured a spot in the knockouts as runners-up in Group F. However, they earned only a solitary point against group winners Atletico Madrid. 

Here’s a look at the UCL odds for the first leg of this knockout tie, along with my best bet. 

UCL Betting Odds – Bayern Munich vs. Lazio

  • Bayern Munich Moneyline: -155
  • Lazio Moneyline: +400
  • Draw Moneyline: +300
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-145/+105)

UCL Prediction – Bayern Munich vs. Lazio

Same Game Parlay: Lazio 1H Under 0.5 & Bayern Munich 2H Double Chance (-115)

Historical Lazio trends are driving this bet as they’ve struggled to compete against top teams, even at home.

Beginning with the former leg, their offense has struggled to generate much momentum on equal terms. 

In a recent home match with Napoli, Lazio failed to put a shot on target in the first half and created only 0.14 expected goals in the first 45 minutes, per fbref.com. 

Sample two other home matches against Inter and Atletico Madrid and bettors will find Lazio created 0.76 and 0.18 post shot expected goals, again per fbref.com. 

The common thread in all of those matches? The Italian outfit failed to score in all three first halves. 

Although Bayern surrendered an early goal at Leverkusen, they held their title challengers to 0.39 post shot expected goals in the first half, per fotmob.com. 

As for the second leg of this SGP, it’s my opinion Lazio’s defense can hold up early, given they’re surrendering only 0.97 npxG per 90 minutes in Serie A this season. 

However, they’re winless against the three aforementioned UCL sides and have won the second half outright only once thanks to a goalkeeper header in the dying moments against Atletico. 

Lastly, Bayern earned at least a draw in five of six UCL group stage second halves, winning four of those five outright. 

As a result, back them to avoid defeat in the second half, assuming they struggle to gain an advantage early. 

Bayern Munich Form 

Feb. 10 at Leverkusen: 3-0, L

Feb. 3 vs. Borussia Monchengladbach: 3-1, W

Jan. 27 at Augsburg: 3-2, W

Jan. 24 vs. Union Berlin: 1-0, W

Jan. 21 vs. Werder Bremen: 0-1, L

Lazio Form

Feb. 10 at Cagliari: 3-1, W

Feb. 4 at Atalanta: 1-3, L

Jan. 28 vs. Napoli: 0-0, D

Jan. 19 at Inter: 0-3, L (Supercoppa)

Jan. 14 vs. Lecce: 1-0, W

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.