RB Leipzig vs. Real Madrid Prediction, Odds, Pick | Champions League Match Preview

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Leipzig's Benjamin Sesko celebrates after scoring his side's first goal during the group G Champions League soccer match between RB Leipzig and Young Boys Bern at the Red Bull arena stadium in Leipzig, Germany, Wednesday, Dec. 13, 2023.
(Matthias Schrader/AP Photo)
Nick Hennion @nickhennion Feb 12, 2024, 3:47 PM
  • Real Madrid is a -0.5-goal favorite against RB Leipzig.
  • The home team won each match in head-to-head meetings last season.
  • Can Real Madrid overcome their myriad injury concerns?

Ahead of Tuesday’s Champions League match in Leipzig, I’m set to provide a RB Leipzig vs. Real Madrid prediction. 

Madrid enters this game in good form following a 4-0 home win over Girona in the league. During the Champions League group stage, Madrid emerged as winners of Group C. 

As for RB Leipzig, they finished second in Group G to Manchester City. Over the weekend, they suffered a 2-2 road draw against Augsburg. 

Here’s a look at the UCL odds for the first leg of this knockout tie, along with my best bet. 

UCL Betting Odds – Real Madrid vs. RB Leipzig

  • Real Madrid Moneyline: +115
  • RB Leipzig Moneyline: +210
  • Draw Moneyline: +270
  • Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-165/+120)

UCL Prediction – Real Madrid vs. RB Leipzig

RB Leipzig Spread (+0.5, -150)

Maybe if Madrid played with their full complement of players, they would be worth a bet. 

However, with a number of key players missing, it’s hard to believe they’ll walk away with all three points. 

Talisman Jude Bellingham is out for Tuesday’s match with a hamstring injury. Across all competitions this season, Bellingham leads Real Madrid in non-penalty expected goals. 

They also don’t have a true center-back available for this match and deployed a back line of Ferland Mendy, Dani Carvajal, Aurilien Tchouameni and Lucas Vazquez this weekend. 

Two of those players – Carvajal and Tchouameni – played out of position. 

That may work at home in the league, but it won’t work against an outstanding offense. 

In the group stage, Leipzig’s offense proved perfectly capable against Manchester City, one of Europe’s best defenses. 

Across two head-to-head meetings with the current continental champions, Leipzig created 1.4 post-shot expected goals per 90 minutes, per fbref.com. 

Recently, they also created 1.75 post-shot xG at home against Leverkusen despite losing 3-2. 

Plus, in two head-to-head meetings at home with Leverkusen and Bayern Munich, Leipzig posted a -0.45 non-penalty post-shot expected goal differential per 90 minutes. 

As a result, back the home dogs to do no worse than a result against a shorthanded Madrid team. 

Real Madrid Form 

Feb. 10 vs. Girona: 4-0, W

Feb. 4 vs. Atletico Madrid: 1-1, D

Feb. 1 at Getafe: 2-0, W

Jan. 27 at Las Palmas: 2-1, W

Jan. 21 vs. Almeria: 3-2, W

RB Leipzig Form

Feb. 10 at Augsburg: 2-2, D

Feb. 4 vs. Union Berlin: 2-0, W

Jan. 27 at Stuttgart: 2-5, L

Jan. 20 vs. Bayer Leverkusen: 2-3, L

Jan. 13 vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: 0-1, L

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.