- Man City is a -2.5-goal home favorite against Sparta Prague.
- Manchester City has won 21 of its last 24 Champions League matches in England.
- My Man City vs. Sparta Prague prediction is Man City to cover the spread.
Manchester City will go for its fourth straight win in all competitions as heavy favorites vs. Sparta Prague in the Champions League.
The 2023 UCL winners sit on four points through two matches. After a 0-0 draw vs. Inter Milan, City thrashed Slovan Bratislava 4-0 on Matchday 2 to earn a victory.
Their Matchday 3 opponents, Sparta Prague, also sit on four points. After a home win against RB Salzburg, Prague drew 1-1 against Stuttgart as heavy road underdogs.
Here’s a look at the Champions League odds and my Man City vs. Sparta Prague prediction.
Champions League Odds: Man City vs. Sparta Prague
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Prague | +2.5 (+100) | 3.5 (-120) | +2500 |
| Manchester City | -2.5 (-145) | 3.5 (-115) | -1200 |
| Draw | +1250 |
Champions League Betting: Man City vs. Sparta Prague Prediction
Based on Sparta Prague’s struggles against Liverpool and City’s historical dominance, my Man City vs. Sparta Prague prediction is the Manchester City Spread (-2.5, -145).
Last season, Prague played Liverpool in a two-leg Europa League tie. It didn’t go well for Prague, who lost 11-2 on aggregate and failed to stay within this number both times.
The underlying metrics supported Liverpool’s dominance. Across both legs, the Reds posted a +2.59 xGDiff per 90 minutes and a +2.38 post-shot xGDiff per 90 minutes.
Now Prague has to face one of the best teams in the world off a lucky result.
Although the match finished 1-1 at Stuttgart, Prague lost the post-shot xG battle 2.1-0.4, per fotmob.com.
City have also dominated teams as a heavy favorite.
In Pep Guardiola’s last four home group matches against a European side outside the Big Five leagues, he’s 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS with a +3.6 xGDiff per 90 minutes.
This season as home favorites against Ipswich Town, the English side closest in quality to Prague, City won 4-1 with a +3 expected goal differential.
Add in the importance of goal differential in the structure of this year’s Champions League, and I’ll lay the goals with Manchester City on Wednesday.
Man City Record, Last 5 Matches
- Oct. 20 at Wolves: 2-1, W
- Oct. 5 vs. Fulham: 3-2, W
- Oct. 1 at Slovan Bratislava: 4-0, W (Champions League)
- Sept. 28 at Newcastle United: 1-1, D
- Sept. 24 vs. Watford: 2-1, W (EFL Cup)
Sparta Prague Record, Last 5 Matches
- Oct. 19 vs. Slovan Liberec: 2-1, W
- Oct. 6 at Slavia Prague: 1-2, L
- Oct. 1 at Stuttgart: 1-1, D (Champions League)
- Sept. 27 vs. Sigma Olomouc: 2-3, L
- Sept. 22 at SK Dynamo Ceske: 2-0, W
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