- Man City is a -0.5-goal favorite against Real Madrid.
- The sides played to a 3-3 thriller in Madrid with loads of unexpected goals.
- Why a healthy Man City is primed to reach the semifinals.
Looking to reach the Champions League semifinals for the third straight year, Manchester City welcomes Real Madrid to the Etihad on Wednesday.
Last week in Madrid, there were goals galore. Ultimately, Manchester City came from behind to rescue a 3-3 draw against Madrid and are -300 to qualify now.
When these sides met last season, City thrashed Madrid 4-0 at home following a 1-1 draw in the first leg.
Here’s a look at the Champions League odds and my best bet for the second leg.
Champions League Odds – Man City vs. Real Madrid
- Man City Moneyline: -155
- Real Madrid Moneyline: +375
- Draw Moneyline: +320
- Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (-185/+130)
Champions League Prediction – Man City vs. Real Madrid
LEAN Man City Moneyline (-155) – Wait for Lineups
City played without a few key personnel in the first leg and their potential return could give them the edge at home.
Notably, Kevin de Bruyne and Kyle Walker failed to feature in Madrid. Even without them, they still narrowly won the expected goals and post shot expected goals battle.
If both those players and defender John Stones feature in Pep Guardiola’s Starting XI on Wednesday, it could be a long day for Real Madrid.
There’s one notable absence for Madrid that could negatively impact their standing. Midfielder/defender Aurelien Tchouameni is suspended, and Madrid have struggled without him.
Sample their most difficult road match in which Madrid played Tchouameni for under an hour – at Atletico Madrid – and bettors will find a bad result.
They lost the match 3-1 and lost the post-shot expected goals battle 0.6 to 2.4, albeit without Vinicius Jr in the lineup for their attack.
In another road fixture against Atletico in the Copa Del Rey – Tchouameni didn’t enter until the 73rd minute, and Vinicius Jr. did play – it also wasn’t good for Madrid.
They drew 2-2 at the end of 90 minutes plus injury time but lost the post-shot expected goals battle 2.01 to 3.85.
Even with Tchouameni in their round of 16 road leg against RB Leipzig, the Spanish giants posted a 1-0 win but lost the psxG battle 0.6 to 2.3.
Additionally, this is a Madrid team that conceded 4.32 post-shot expected goals in their last trip to Manchester.
Although their defense has improved year-over-year, City have yet to drop points at home in the Champions League and have earned all three points in 15 of their last 16 at the Etihad.
Wait for lineups to bet the hosts, but I like them to win against Madrid, assuming De Bruyne, Stones and Walker are all available.
Man City Form
April 13 vs. Luton Town: 5-1, W
April 9 at Real Madrid: 3-3, D (Champions League)
April 6 at Crystal Palace: 4-2, W
April 3 vs. Aston Villa: 4-1, W
March 31 vs. Arsenal: 0-0, D
Real Madrid Form
April 13 at Mallorca: 1-0, W
April 9 vs. Man City: 3-3, D (Champions League)
March 31 vs. Athletic Club: 2-0, W
March 16 at Osasuna: 4-2, W
March 10 vs. Celta Vigo: 4-0, W
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