- Real Madrid is a -0.5-goal favorite against RB Leipzig.
- Leipzig dominated the first leg’s underlying metrics, but lost 1-0.
- History says Leipzig will struggle to earn a result in the second leg.
Below, bettors can find my Real Madrid vs. RB Leipzig prediction for Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League second leg.
Madrid enters Wednesday’s game in the driver’s seat to reach the quarterfinals. After earning a 1-0 road win in Germany, Madrid is -1000 to qualify.
As for RB Leipzig, they’re +550 to overturn the first leg result and reach the quarterfinals.
Here’s a look at the UCL odds and my best bet for Wednesday’s second leg.
UCL Betting Odds – Real Madrid vs. RB Leipzig
- Real Madrid Moneyline: -185
- RB Leipzig Moneyline: +450
- Draw Moneyline: +350
- Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (+120/-165)
UCL Prediction – Real Madrid vs. RB Leipzig
Real Madrid Spread (-1.5, +130)
The underlying metrics suggest Leipzig were quite unlucky to walk away from the first leg with an outright loss.
Madrid narrowly won the expected goals battle 1.43 to 1.37 but lost the post shot expected goals battle 0.58 to 2.44, per fotmob.com.
In the first leg, goalkeeper Andriy Lunin made nine saves on his way to preventing 2.44 goals.
It’s reasonable to assume positive regression could be on the way for RB Leipzig in the second leg.
However, history suggests it’s quite unlikely Leipzig makes up ground against the aggregate scoreline.
Since the 2019-20 UEFA Champions League, 15 road teams have won the first leg by three or fewer goals in the round of 16.
Of those 15, 12 went on to win the second leg at home, with all but one earning a point.
At this point, I should disclose I bet Real Madrid Spread (-1, -110) instead of -1.5. However, Madrid remains a contrarian side for Wednesday’s second leg.
Plus, Madrid finished the group stage 3-0 at home, including a 4-2 win over Napoli.
They’ll also return two key players to their Starting XI on Wednesday that didn’t partake in the first leg: Antonio Rudiger and Jude Bellingham.
With those players available, bettors should treat this match as a one-game sample and take Madrid to earn another outright win over Leipzig.
Real Madrid Form
March 2 at Valencia: 2-2, D
Feb. 25 vs. Sevilla: 1-0, W
Feb. 18 at Rayo Vallecano: 1-1,D
Feb. 13 at RB Leipzig: 1-0, W (Champions League)
Feb. 10 vs. Girona: 4-0, W
RB Leipzig Form
March 2 at Bochum: 4-1, W
Feb. 24 at Bayern Munich: 1-2, L
Feb. 17 vs. Borussia Monchengladbach: 2-0, W
Feb. 13 vs. Real Madrid: 0-1, L (Champions League)
Feb. 10 at Augsburg: 2-2, D
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