Coastal Carolina vs. JMU: Prediction, Pick, Odds Preview

As usual, this week’s Thursday Night Football lineup won’t just include an NFL game. A dip into the college football odds market yields a fun matchup between G5 darling James Madison and Sun Belt challenger Coastal Carolina. 

I’ll be live in Harrisonburg for the game for some, uhh, in-person reporting. I also like a bet in the game!

Coastal Carolina vs. James Madison Odds

• Point Spread: JMU -9.5
• Moneyline: JMU -375  |  Coastal Carolina +300
• Over/Under: 62.5

Coastal Carolina vs. JMU Preview

At some point, you actually have to feel a bit bad for Coastal Carolina. Every time the Chants draw JMU, you might say the Dukes are royally miffed.

In 2022, ineligible JMU wanted to make a statement that it – not technically-in-first-place Coastal – was the top dog in the East. 

Result: JMU 47, No. 23 Coastal Carolina 7.

In 2023, JMU blew its chance for a perfect season with a home stinker against known giant-killer App State. College GameDay predictions called for a JMU blowout; instead, the Dukes trailed practically the whole game, miraculously forced overtime, then lost on a goal-line call that went App’s way. 

The following week: JMU 56, Coastal Carolina 14.

Enter 2024, where JMU just dropped a Monroe special 21-19. The Dukes played a sloppy game, including a fumble in the red zone that became an 82-yard recovery for a touchdown. They let the Warhawks’ defense control the tenor of the game. 

In a game where the NCAA football odds market priced JMU as a 17-point favorite, they lost outright. Ouch. 

Halftime, ULM 14, #JMU 13.

This is a critical development moment for the ’24 Dukes that I have been anticipating.

133 points. Everyone loves you. Playoff talk. Everything going your way.

Suddenly, Q2 in Monroe goes very wrong.

2H response will say a lot about this season.

— Chase Kiddy (@chaseakiddy) October 6, 2024

If JMU corrects mistakes and effectively refocuses for Thursday, no one would be surprised to see this bomb-chucking offense cover a 9.5-point spread. 

But there are also reasons to be cautious of laying north of a touchdown with JMU in this spot. 

Typically, short-week travel favors the home team. However, Coastal played at home on Saturday, while JMU had to fly back from Louisiana overnight with an awful taste in their mouths. They would have gotten home around 5 a.m. Sunday and perhaps had meetings later in the day. Monday practices would be lighter – if they happen at all.

There’s also Coastal Carolina’s offense, which is now without Grayson McCall but inarguably more effective than it was in 2023. Coastal’s offense scores 38 points per game, good for the No. 15 scoring offense in college football. It’s also a top-40 unit in total offense and a top-50 unit in EPA/play. 

JMU wants to utilize Alonza Barnett’s beautiful deep ball abilities and hit home runs. Its defense shows promise, but generating pressure on the opposing team doesn’t appear to be a strength.

Coastal Carolina vs. James Madison Prediction

I am predicting an Over 62.5 in Thursday night’s game between Coastal Carolina and JMU.

Playing the bounce-back angle with JMU is a defensible angle on this game, and if that’s what you like, I’d actually take a look at some potential alt spreads like JMU -13.5. However, I don’t think the side is the best approach to this game. 

JMU’s offense will connect on its deep balls, but unlike the last two seasons, I don’t see this as a game where Coastal’s offense is completely shut down. The Chanticleers will score points of their own on Saturday.

From an online sports betting perspective, I think the best approach to this game is counting on both teams to find offensive success. It won’t quite make my college football best bets column for Week 7, but I’m willing to bet the over, even at a relatively high market price like 62.5.

Pick: JMU/Coastal Carolina Over 62.5