Dillon Gabriel Heisman Watch: Odds, Stats, Prediction, Analysis

Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel began the 2024 college football season in the thick of the Heisman race. He was the betting favorite at BetMGM prior to Week 1, though he fell out of favor in the early portion of the season as the Ducks offense struggled with inferior teams.

But late October has been a resurgent time for Gabriel’s Heisman candidacy. The Ducks beat Ohio State, then followed up the signature wins with dominant performances against Purdue and ranked Illinois. 

As a result, Oregon has entered November as the No. 1 team in the AP Poll and is flying up most college football odds tables, including the college football national championship odds.

Gabriel’s strong play has been a key factor in Oregon’s surge. The Ducks’ position, in turn, has helped lift Gabriel back to the top of the Heisman board.

The key question for Gabriel is this: Can his Heisman resume survive a bad game?

Here’s a rundown of what you need to know for Dillon Gabriel’s Heisman chances. You can also check out my longer Heisman odds & analysis piece, which covers the whole market in greater detail. 

Dillon Gabriel Heisman Odds

Dillon Gabriel is currently +3000 to win the Heisman Trophy at BetMGM. 

As of Nov. 11, about 4.7% of Heisman tickets are on Gabriel.

Dillon Gabriel Stats

Through Week 12, Dillon Gabriel has passed for 3,066 yards and 22 touchdowns. 

He has an additional six touchdowns (but only 155 yards) on the ground.

Dillon Gabriel Heisman Prediction

I am predicting that Dillon Gabriel will not win the Heisman.

While Gabriel deserves a ton of credit for Oregon’s midseason surge, and he remains key to the Ducks’ ultimate playoff fate, I do not think he has been the most impressive player in college football this year. I’m not even sure he’s been the most impressive quarterback.

I believe voters will ultimately go in a different direction in December – even if Oregon is the 13-0 undefeated Big Ten champion and No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff.