Florida vs Vanderbilt Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 12

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 18, 2022, 10:25 AM
  • Florida (6-4) are -14 point favorites vs Vanderbilt (4-6)
  • Total (Over/Under): 57.5 points

The Florida Gators (6-5) visit FirstBank Stadium to take on the Vanderbilt Commodores (5-6) on Nov. 19. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Nashville.

are betting favorites in Week 12, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Florida vs. Vanderbilt is total points.

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Florida vs. Vanderbilt Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 12

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Florida
Vanderbilt

Florida vs Vanderbilt Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Florida will win this game with 72.4% confidence.

Florida vs Vanderbilt Spread Prediction for Week 12

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Vanderbilt will cover the spread with 68.5% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Florida and Vanderbilt, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Florida Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Florida players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Anthony Richardson has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 3 away games (+3.85 Units / 101% ROI)
  • Ricky Pearsall has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 90% ROI)
  • Anthony Richardson has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 88% ROI)
  • Xzavier Henderson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 47% ROI)

Best Vanderbilt Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Vanderbilt players for Week 12, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Re’Mahn Davis has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Florida have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Florida has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.90 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Florida has hit the Team Total Over in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 87% ROI)
  • Florida has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 84% ROI)
  • Florida has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Vanderbilt has hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.65 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Vanderbilt has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.80 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Vanderbilt has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 games (+5.55 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Vanderbilt has hit the 1H Moneyline in 2 of their last 4 games (+5.50 Units / 138% ROI)
  • Vanderbilt has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.45 Units / 31% ROI)

Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Florida has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Florida is 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.45 Units / -9.9% ROI
  • Florida is 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
  • Florida is 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI

Vanderbilt Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Vanderbilt has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Vanderbilt is 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.55 Units / 28.53% ROI
  • Vanderbilt is 6-4 when betting the Over for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI
  • Vanderbilt is 4-6 when betting the Under for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI

Florida: Keys to the Game vs. Vanderbilt

Florida is 1-7 (.125) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush — tied for 11th-worst in FBS; Average: .381

Florida is 1-7 (.125) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush — tied for 7th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .341

Florida is 3-7 (.214) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities — tied for 13th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .367

Florida is 10-5 (.667) when committing less than 30 yards in penalties since the 2020 season– 9th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .431

Vanderbilt: Keys to the Game vs. Florida

Vanderbilt is winless (0-19) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2020 season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .450

Vanderbilt is winless (0-20) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2020 season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .434

Vanderbilt is winless (0-19) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2020 season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .408

Vanderbilt is winless (0-18) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2020 season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .428

Matchup Notes for Florida vs. Vanderbilt

Florida has 128 receptions in 9 games (just 14.2 per game) this season — fourth-worst among Power 5 skill players. Vanderbilt’s defense has allowed 20.2 receptions per game this season — fourth-worst among SEC defenses.

Florida’s QBs has rushed for 1,678 yards on 264 carries (6.4 YPC) since the 2021 season — best among FBS teams. Vanderbilt’s defense have allowed 5.1 YPC since the 2021 season — tied for fourth-worst among P5 defenses.

Florida’s QBs has 1,678 rushing yards since the 2021 season — second-most among FBS teams. Vanderbilt’s defense has allowed 3,629 rushing yards since the 2021 season — fourth-most among SEC defenses.

Florida Offensive Stats & Trends

Florida RBs have averaged 7.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (77 yards / 10 touches) on 3rd and short this season– tied for 5th best among FBS Teams; Average: 4.3

Florida RBs have averaged 6.3 Yards per Carry (1,509 yards/241 carries) this season– tied for 4th best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

Florida QBs have averaged 76.3 rushing yards per game (1,678/22) since last season– 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 24.1

Florida Skill Players have averaged just 14.2 receptions per game (128/9) this season– 4th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 19.9

Florida QBs have rushed for 1,678 yards since last season– 2nd most among FBS Teams

Vanderbilt Offensive Stats & Trends

Vanderbilt RBs have averaged just 3.0 Yards per Carry (301 yards/99 carries) in the 4th quarter since last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

Vanderbilt RBs have averaged 3.5 yards from scrimmage per touch (408 yards / 116 touches) in the 4th quarter since last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.3

Vanderbilt RBs have averaged just 3.2 Yards per Carry (145 yards/46 carries) in the 4th quarter this season– 3rd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

Vanderbilt have gone for two on 14% of PATs since last season– 2nd highest among Power 5 Offenses; Average: 4%

Vanderbilt have gone for two on 14% of PATs since last season– 2nd highest among FBS Offenses; Average: 4%

Florida Gators Defensive Stats & Trends

Florida opponents has averaged 6.5 Passing Attempts per TD (72 Pass Attempts/11 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since last season– tied for 4th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 4.1

Florida has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 8 of 46 attempts (17%) on 3rd and long this season– 5th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 9%

Florida has allowed 2.0 touchdowns per interception (4 TDs allowed, and 2 INT) in the Red Zone this season– tied for 4th best in FBS; Average: 8.9

Florida has allowed a Completion Pct of 76% (25 completions/33 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 59%

Florida has allowed a Completion Pct of 76% (25 completions/33 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– 4th worst in FBS; Average: 59%

Vanderbilt Commodores Defensive Stats & Trends

Vanderbilt has allowed a passer rating of 175.1 (236.0 Pass Attempts) this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 127.0

Vanderbilt has allowed a Completion Pct of 86% (18 completions/21 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 59%

Vanderbilt has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 11 of 236 attempts (5%) this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 2%

Vanderbilt has averaged a sack every 27.3 pass attempts (629 Pass Attempts/23 Sacks) since last season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 14.1

Vanderbilt has allowed a passer rating of 175.1 (236.0 Pass Attempts) this season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 130.7


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.