Predicting North Carolina Football’s Win Total for 2024

min read
North Carolina Tar Heels linebacker Raneiria Dillworth (11) runs kick coverage against Appalachian State defensive back Kaleb Dawson (2) during the second half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday Sept. 3, 2022, in Boone, N.C.
(AP Photo/Reinhold Matay)
Chase Kiddy @chaseakiddy Mar 01, 2024, 12:48 PM
  • North Carolina’s win total was 8 in 2023 and 7.5 in 2022.
  • North Carolina football will need to replace another NFL quarterback in 2024.

North Carolina is a fascinating college football team to project for in 2024. Mack Brown’s status as one of the oldest coaches in college football will be contrasted by a youthful Tar Heels team with lots of turnover from 2023. 

With Drake Maye the latest UNC quarterback to leave school for the NFL, Brown and the staff will need to improve the defense and find the next great signal caller. 

Their success in those areas will be major factors in how successful the 2024 North Carolina football season ends up.

North Carolina 2024 Win Total

I’m projecting the North Carolina football 2024 win total at 7.5.

As usual, the ACC presents plenty of winnable games. North Carolina’s 2024 schedule includes games against Duke, Pitt, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Boston College, and Virginia. Unless something goes horribly wrong for Brown, many of those games should be wins. 

The biggest challenges in conference play should come against Florida State and N.C. State. Let’s say North Carolina loses at FSU but beats the Wolf Pack on Senior Day in Chapel Hill.

That leaves nonconference games against Minnesota, Charlotte, James Madison, and FCS North Carolina Central. Two of those should be near-automatic wins. A road game against a Big Ten opponent could be challenging. 

The most unpredictable game is the home contest against James Madison, which appears to have nailed another coaching hire in Bob Chesney and will once again be a top G5 team. (Full disclosure: I am a JMU alum.)

Some loose, back-of-the-envelope map gives UNC four wins from the first group of ACC games, one from the top conference matchups, and three from the nonconference matchups. That puts UNC at 8-4.

Let’s drop half a game out of respect for the departure of Maye. That brings the number to about 7.5, with likely juice to the over. 

This potential price would be roughly in step with how an online sportsbook like BetMGM has priced UNC in recent years. In last year’s 2023 college football win totals market, UNC closed August with an over/under of 8. The year before that, it was 7.5.

North Carolina 2024 Football Schedule

DateOpponent
Aug. 29at Minnesota
Sept. 7Charlotte
Sept. 14North Carolina Central (FCS)
Sept. 21James Madison
Sept. 28at Duke
Oct. 5Pittsburgh
Oct. 12Georgia Tech
Oct. 26at Virginia
Nov. 2 at Florida State
Nov. 16 Wake Forest
Nov. 23at Boston College
Nov. 30North Carolina State

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About the Author

Chase Kiddy

Read More @chaseakiddy

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.