How Often Do College Football Favorites Cover the Spread?

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Southern California running back Quinten Joyner runs the ball during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Utah State, Saturday, Sept. 7, 2024, in Los Angeles.
(AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
Chase Kiddy @chaseakiddy Sep 12, 2024, 2:47 PM

College football betting can be fundamentally different than its NFL counterpart. After all, when was the last time you saw somebody lay 38 and the hook in a professional football game?

Football odds have different nuances in different leagues and levels. To be sure, one of the key hallmarks of the college football spreads market is the potential for huge numbers.ย 

Sometimes, laying a large number is even the right call. It typically happens at least once per week in my college football best bets column.

Overall, though, how often do college football favorites actually cover the spread? I dove into the data to find an answer.

How Often Do College Football Favorites Cover the Spread?

Since 2005, college football favorites playing in regular-season games cover the spread 49.6% of the time.

Since 2018, when the U.S. Supreme Court overturned PASPA, favorites have won at a slightly lower clip of 49.4%.ย ย 

As experienced bettors can tell you, handicappers need to win about 52.4% of their bets in a typical -110 point spread market to break even. That means blind-betting favorites in college football is a losing proposition.ย 

Choose your favorites with caution. Or better yet โ€“ consider how often college football underdogs cover the spread, and bet the other side instead.

College Football Parlays

College football season is a perfect chance to build parlays.

With hundreds of games and thousands of odds combinations each year, you can build a parlay with heavy moneyline favorites, short underdogs, or prop bets. It’s a thrilling way to get closer to the action and make every play count.

Visit the online sportsbook today to view all football betting opportunities!

If you don’t have an account, register today with BetMGM’s welcome bonus. And check back for the best sportsbook promotions each day of the year.

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About the Author

Chase Kiddy

Read More @chaseakiddy

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.

Chase Kiddy is a writer for BetMGM and co-host of The Lion's Edge, an NFL and college football podcast available on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere else. He has also written for a number of print and online outlets, including the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Washington Post, Daily News-Record, and HERO Sports. His first novel, Cave Paintings, is in development.