Kansas State vs Baylor Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 11, 2022, 2:30 PM
  • Baylor (6-3) are -2.5 point favorites vs Kansas State (6-3)
  • Total (Over/Under): 53.5 points
  • Watch the game on FOX Networks

The Kansas State Wildcats (8-3) visit McLane Stadium to take on the Baylor Bears (6-5) on Nov. 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST in Waco.

are betting favorites in Week 11, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Kansas State vs. Baylor is total points.

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Kansas State vs. Baylor Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 11

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Kansas State
Baylor

Kansas State vs Baylor Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Baylor will win this game with 52.3% confidence.

Kansas State vs Baylor Spread Prediction for Week 11

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Baylor will cover the spread with 67.6% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Kansas State and Baylor, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Kansas State Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Kansas State players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Adrian Martinez has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Deuce Vaughn has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.05 Units / 90% ROI)
  • Adrian Martinez has hit the Passing Yards Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+2.60 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Adrian Martinez has hit the TD Passes Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+2.00 Units / 36% ROI)

Best Baylor Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Baylor players for Week 11, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ben Sims has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Blake Shapen has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 73% ROI)
  • Kansas State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 14 games (+11.60 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Kansas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in their last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Kansas State have covered the 1H Spread in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.70 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Kansas State have covered the 1Q Spread in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.60 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Kansas State has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+5.15 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Baylor has hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games (+10.60 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Baylor have covered the Spread in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.40 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Baylor has hit the 1H Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.40 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Baylor have covered the 1Q Spread in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.55 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Baylor has hit the Game Total Over in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 91% ROI)

Kansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Kansas State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Kansas State is 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.55 Units / 3.26% ROI
  • Kansas State is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
  • Kansas State is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI

Baylor Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Baylor has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Baylor is 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.6 Units / 5.48% ROI
  • Baylor is 6-2 when betting the Over for +3.8 Units / 43.18% ROI
  • Baylor is 2-6 when betting the Under for -4.6 Units / -52.27% ROI

Kansas State: Keys to the Game vs. Baylor

#20 Kansas State is 8-2 (.727) when passing for more than 200 yards since the 2020 season– 4th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .422

#17 Kansas State is 10-3 (.769) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities — tied for 9th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .560

#17 Kansas State is 6-4 (.600) when passing for more than 200 yards — tied for 6th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .405

#17 Kansas State is 9-4 (.562) when making 7 or more explosive plays — tied for 14th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .439

Baylor: Keys to the Game vs. Kansas State

Baylor is 12-2 (.750) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties — 3rd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .376

Baylor is 11-2 (.647) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays — 8th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .424

Baylor is 16-2 (.800) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times — 6th-best in FBS; Average: .492

Baylor is 14-2 (.700) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times — 3rd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .422

Matchup Notes for Kansas State vs. Baylor

Baylor’s offense has 25 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — most among FBS offenses. Kansas State’s defense has allowed 7 rushing TDs this season — second-fewest among Big 12 defenses.

Baylor’s RBs has 19 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — most among FBS RBs. Kansas State’s defense has allowed 6 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — second-fewest among Big 12 defenses.

Baylor’s offense has 25 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — most among FBS offenses. Kansas State’s defense has allowed 6 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — second-fewest among Big 12 defenses.

Kansas State’s TEs have just 8.9 receiving yards per game this season — fifth-worst among P5 TEs. Baylor’s defense has allowed just 220.9 receiving yards per game this season — fourth-best among Big 12 defenses.

Kansas State Offensive Stats & Trends

#23 Kansas State Skill Players have averaged 20.8 yards per reception (353 yards/17 catches) with 4-6 yards to go this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.3

#23 Kansas State Skill Players have averaged 20.8 yards per reception (353 yards/17 catches) with 4-6 yards to go this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.5

#23 Kansas State Skill Players have averaged 18.0 yards per reception (775 yards/43 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since last season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.5

#23 Kansas State Skill Players have averaged 18.0 yards per reception (775 yards/43 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since last season– 3rd best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.4

#23 Kansas State Skill Players have no touchdowns on 19 receptions in close and late situations this season– tied for worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.2

Baylor Offensive Stats & Trends

Baylor RBs have rushed for 10 TDs in the 4th quarter this season– most among FBS Teams

Baylor RBs have rushed for 19 TDs in the Red Zone this season– most among FBS Teams

Baylor WRs have averaged 18.7 yards per reception (709 yards/38 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since last season– 3rd best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.3

Baylor Skill Players have averaged 16.3 yards per reception (882 yards/54 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since last season– 4th best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.4

Baylor WRs have averaged 18.7 yards per reception (709 yards/38 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since last season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 12.5

Kansas State Wildcats Defensive Stats & Trends

#23 Kansas State has no interceptions and 18 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since last season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: 9.3

#23 Kansas State has no interceptions (65 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since last season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: 36.9

#23 Kansas State has no interceptions (65 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since last season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 41.7

#23 Kansas State has allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 4 of 95 attempts (4%) on 3rd and long since last season– 3rd worst in FBS; Average: 10%

#23 Kansas State has allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 4 of 95 attempts (4%) on 3rd and long since last season– 3rd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 9%

Baylor Bears Defensive Stats & Trends

Baylor has sacked opposing QBs just once on 71 pass attempts in the Red Zone since last season– 4th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16.2

Baylor has 29 interceptions since last season– tied for 4th most in FBS

Baylor has averaged 1.32 interceptions per game (29/22) since last season– 5th best in FBS; Average: 0.83

Baylor has allowed 0.8 touchdowns per interception (23 TDs allowed, and 29 INT) since last season– tied for 5th best in FBS; Average: 1.9

Baylor has tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 49 rushing attempts (4% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd worst in FBS; Average: 15%.


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.