Louisville vs Virginia Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 6

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 06, 2022, 1:45 PM
  • (2-4) are point favorites vs (2-4)
  • Total (Over/Under): points
  • Watch the game on ACC Network

The Louisville Cardinals (3-3) visit Scott Stadium to take on the Virginia Cavaliers (2-4) on Oct. 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT in Charlottesville.

are betting favorites in Week 6, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Louisville vs. Virginia is total points.

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Louisville vs. Virginia Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 6

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Louisville
Virginia

Louisville vs Virginia Prediction for Week 6

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Louisville will win this game with 55.0% confidence.

Louisville vs Virginia Spread Prediction for Week 6

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Louisville will cover the spread with 65.7% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Louisville and Virginia, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Louisville Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Louisville players for Week 6, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Malik Cunningham has hit the TD Passes Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+7.75 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Malik Cunningham has hit the Passing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.65 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Jalen Mitchell has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Jordan Watkins has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 82% ROI)

Best Virginia Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Virginia players for Week 6, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dontayvion Wicks has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Billy Kemp IV has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Brennan Armstrong has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Louisville has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games (+10.75 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Louisville have covered the 1Q Spread in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.85 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Louisville has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.75 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Louisville has hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.55 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Louisville have covered the 1H Spread in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.45 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.60 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the Team Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 88% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.85 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 15 games (+3.50 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.70 Units / 25% ROI)

Louisville Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Louisville has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Louisville are when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
  • Louisville are when betting the Over for Units / ROI
  • Louisville are when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Virginia Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Virginia has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Virginia are when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
  • Virginia are when betting the Over for Units / ROI
  • Virginia are when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Louisville: Keys to the Game vs. Virginia

Louisville is 1-12 (.077) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2020 season– 3rd-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .447

Louisville is 2-9 (.182) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns — tied for 8th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .436

Louisville is 3-13 (.188) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2020 season– tied for 4th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .465

Louisville is 2-11 (.154) when not forcing a fumble since the 2020 season– 5th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .448

Virginia: Keys to the Game vs. Louisville

Virginia is winless (0-7) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2020 season– tied for worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .382

Virginia is winless (0-7) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game since the 2020 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .402

Matchup Notes for Louisville vs. Virginia

Virginia’s QBs has thrown for 6,047 passing yards in 17 games (355.7 YPG) since the 2021 season — fifth-best among FBS teams. Louisville’s defense has allowed 261.3 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — fourth-worst among ACC defenses.

Virginia’s offense has thrown for 5,746 passing yards in 17 games (338.0 YPG) since the 2021 season — fifth-best among FBS offenses. Louisville’s defense has allowed 261.3 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — fourth-worst among ACC defenses.

Virginia’s receiving corps has been targeted 138 times this season — fifth-most among FBS WR corps. Louisville’s defense has allowed 943 receiving yards this season — fifth-most among ACC defenses.

Louisville’s QBs has 344 rushing yards this season — third-most among FBS teams. Virginia’s defense has allowed 780 rushing yards this season — fourth-most among P5 defenses.

Louisville’s QBs has 1,400 rushing yards since the 2021 season — second-most among FBS teams. Virginia’s defense has allowed 3,461 rushing yards since the 2021 season — most among ACC defenses.

Louisville’s QBs has 1,400 rushing yards since the 2021 season — second-most among FBS teams. Virginia’s defense has allowed 3,461 rushing yards since the 2021 season — fourth-most among P5 defenses.

Louisville Offensive Stats & Trends

Louisville Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 36.0 receptions (72 Rec/2 TDs) this season– 2nd worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.2

Louisville WRs have just one touchdown on 45 receptions this season– 4th worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10.6

Louisville QBs have rushed for 10 TDs in the 1st quarter since last season– most among FBS Teams

Louisville QBs have rushed for 20 TDs in the Red Zone since last season– most among FBS Teams

Louisville QBs have rushed for 5 TDs in the Red Zone this season– tied for most among FBS Teams

Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends

Virginia’s QBs has thrown for 6,047 passing yards in 17 games (355.7 YPG) since the 2021 season — fifth-best among FBS teams. Louisville’s defense has allowed 261.3 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — fourth-worst among ACC defenses.

Virginia RBs have picked up first downs on 20 receptions on 1st down since last season– tied for 2nd most among FBS Teams

Virginia’s offense has thrown for 5,746 passing yards in 17 games (338.0 YPG) since the 2021 season — fifth-best among FBS offenses. Louisville’s defense has allowed 261.3 passing yards per game since the 2021 season — fourth-worst among ACC defenses.

Virginia WRs have caught just 10 of 40 passes (25% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone since last season– tied for 2nd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 54%

Virginia RBs have caught 7 touchdown passes in the Red Zone since last season– most among FBS Teams

Louisville Cardinals Defensive Stats & Trends

Louisville has allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on 13 of their 150 carries (9%) this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 3%

Louisville has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 6 of 108 attempts (6%) this season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 2%

Louisville has allowed a passer rating of 160.1 (108.0 Pass Attempts) this season– 3rd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 120.4

Louisville has allowed 7.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (1,687 yards / 222 touches) this season– tied for 4th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 6.3

Louisville has allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on 13 of their 150 carries (9%) this season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 3%

Virginia Cavaliers Defensive Stats & Trends

Virginia has tackled opponents for a loss on just 78 of 664 rushing attempts (12% TFL%) since last season– 3rd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 16%.

Virginia has forced 8 fumbles this season– tied for 2nd most among Power 5 Teams

Virginia has allowed a Completion Pct of 67% (103 completions/153 attempts) this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 59%

Virginia has allowed opponents to catch just 33 of 82 passes (40% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone since last season– 5th best in FBS; Average: 54%

Virginia has allowed a Completion Pct of just 40% (33 completions/82 attempts) in the Red Zone since last season– 5th best in FBS; Average: 54%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.