Michigan State vs Penn State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 13

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 26, 2022, 9:05 AM
  • Penn State (9-2) are -18 point favorites vs Michigan State (5-6)
  • Total (Over/Under): 52.5 points

The Michigan State Spartans (5-7) visit Beaver Stadium to take on the Penn State Nittany Lions (10-2) on Nov. 26. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in University Park.

are betting favorites in Week 13, with the spread sitting at ().

The Michigan State vs. Penn State Over/Under is total points.

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Michigan State vs. Penn State Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 13

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Michigan State
Penn State

Michigan State vs Penn State Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Penn State will win this game with 75.3% confidence.

Michigan State vs Penn State Spread Prediction for Week 13

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Michigan State will cover the spread with 50.7% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Michigan State and Penn State, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Michigan State Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Michigan State players for Week 13, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Payton Thorne has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Tre Mosley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Payton Thorne has hit the Passing Yards Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+3.25 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Jayden Reed has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 8 of his last 13 games (+2.25 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Jarek Broussard has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 36% ROI)

Best Penn State Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Penn State players for Week 13, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Parker Washington has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Sean Clifford has hit the Passing Yards Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+3.95 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Keyvone Lee has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Sean Clifford has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 5 of his last 7 games (+2.60 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Nicholas Singleton has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+2.00 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Michigan State has hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+11.35 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Michigan State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+7.29 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Michigan State has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Michigan State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 4 games (+4.30 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Michigan State has hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.10 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Penn State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 18 of their last 22 games (+15.70 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Penn State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 games (+8.52 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Penn State have covered the 1H Spread in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.80 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Penn State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games (+5.95 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Penn State has hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.70 Units / 51% ROI)

Michigan State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Michigan State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Michigan State is 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.05 Units / 3.2% ROI
  • Michigan State is 5-6 when betting the Over for -1.6 Units / -13.22% ROI
  • Michigan State is 6-5 when betting the Under for +0.5 Units / 4.13% ROI

Penn State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Penn State has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Penn State is 6-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +4 Units / 10.43% ROI
  • Penn State is 8-3 when betting the Over for +4.7 Units / 38.84% ROI
  • Penn State is 3-8 when betting the Under for -5.8 Units / -47.93% ROI

Michigan State: Keys to the Game vs. Penn State

Michigan State is 15-3 (.789) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2021 season– 8th-best in FBS; Average: .495

Michigan State is 10-4 (.714) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2021 season– tied for 14th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .561

Michigan State is 12-3 (.632) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2021 season– 7th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .429

Michigan State is 11-2 (.786) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2021 season– 15th-best in FBS; Average: .547

Penn State: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan State

#11 Penn State is 9-5 (.643) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2021 season– 15th-best in FBS; Average: .383

#11 Penn State is 11-3 (.786) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2021 season– 3rd-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .473

#11 Penn State is 11-3 (.786) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2021 season– tied for 11th-best in FBS; Average: .553

#11 Penn State is 7-1 (.778) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times — 4th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .432

Matchup Notes for Michigan State vs. Penn State

Penn State’s TEs has 8 receiving touchdowns this season — tied for third-most among P5 TEs. Michigan State’s defense has allowed 18 receiving touchdowns this season — second-most among Big Ten defenses.

Michigan State Offensive Stats & Trends

Michigan State WRs have 11 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– 2nd most among Power 5 Teams

Michigan State RBs have averaged 6.8 Yards per Carry (702 yards/104 carries) in close and late situations since last season– 2nd best among FBS Teams; Average: 4.8

Michigan State Skill Players have 12 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter this season– tied for 2nd most among Power 5 Teams

Michigan State WRs have averaged a touchdown every 7.4 receptions (288 Rec/39 TDs) since last season– 4th best Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10.9

Michigan State WRs have averaged just 4.3 yards per reception (47 yards/11 catches) on 3rd and short since last season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10.8

Penn State Offensive Stats & Trends

#11 Penn State WRs have just one touchdown on 47 receptions in close and late situations since last season– 4th worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.5

#11 Penn State TEs have picked up first downs on 6 receptions in the Red Zone this season– tied for 3rd most among FBS Teams

#11 Penn State RBs have averaged 3.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (71 yards / 19 touches) on 3rd and long since last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 7.3

#11 Penn State RBs have fumbled 7 times this season– tied for 3rd most among FBS Teams

#11 Penn State WRs have averaged a touchdown every 3.5 receptions (28 Rec/8 TDs) in the Red Zone since last season– 5th worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 2.0

Michigan State Spartans Defensive Stats & Trends

Michigan State has allowed 9.0 touchdowns per interception (18 TDs allowed, and 2 INT) — 2nd-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 1.7

Michigan State has allowed 9.0 touchdowns per interception (18 TDs allowed, and 2 INT) — 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 1.8

Michigan State has intercepted 2 of 310 attempts (155.0 pass attempts per int.) this season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 37.9

Michigan State has intercepted 2 of 310 attempts (155.0 pass attempts per int.) this season– 2nd worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 38.4

Michigan State has allowed 20 rushing TDs on 150 carries (7.5 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone since last season– 5th best in FBS; Average: 4.8

Penn State Nittany Lions Defensive Stats & Trends

#11 Penn State opponents has averaged 43.1 Passing Attempts per TD (776 Pass Attempts/18 Passing TDs) since last season– 2nd best in FBS; Average: 20.1

#11 Penn State opponents has averaged 8.1 Passing Attempts per TD (73 Pass Attempts/9 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 4.1

#11 Penn State has allowed opponents to catch just 13 of 42 passes (31% Reception Pct) in close and late situations this season– best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 57%

#11 Penn State opponents has averaged 8.1 Passing Attempts per TD (73 Pass Attempts/9 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2021 season– tied for best in FBS; Average: 4.0

#11 Penn State has allowed 2.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (414 yards / 176 touches) in the Red Zone since last season– 2nd best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 3.7


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.