Missouri vs Florida Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 6

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 06, 2022, 1:40 PM
  • (2-4) are point favorites vs (2-4)
  • Total (Over/Under): points
  • Watch the game on ESPNU

The Missouri Tigers (2-4) visit Ben Hill Griffin Stadium to take on the Florida Gators (4-3) on Oct. 8. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT in Gainesville.

are betting favorites in Week 6, with the spread sitting at ().

The Over/Under for Missouri vs. Florida is total points.

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Missouri vs. Florida Odds, Spread, Over/Under for Week 6

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Missouri
Florida

Missouri vs Florida Prediction for Week 6

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Florida will win this game with 64.1% confidence.

Missouri vs Florida Spread Prediction for Week 6

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Missouri will cover the spread with 51.5% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Missouri and Florida, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


Best Missouri Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Missouri players for Week 6, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jacob Copeland has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Brady Cook has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Tauskie Dove has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 80% ROI)

Best Florida Player Prop Best Bets Today

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Florida players for Week 6, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Montrell Johnson Jr. has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Xzavier Henderson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Missouri has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+12.55 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Missouri have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.90 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Missouri has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.60 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Missouri has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Missouri has hit the Team Total Under in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 88% ROI)
  • Florida has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+5.80 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Florida have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 4 games (+1.90 Units / 43% ROI)

Missouri Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Missouri has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Missouri are when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
  • Missouri are when betting the Over for Units / ROI
  • Missouri are when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Florida has gone against the spread this college football season ( Units / ROI).

  • Florida are when betting on the Moneyline for Units / ROI
  • Florida are when betting the Over for Units / ROI
  • Florida are when betting the Under for Units / ROI

Missouri: Keys to the Game vs. Florida

Missouri is 2-9 (.182) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards — tied for 7th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .454

Missouri is 2-6 (.143) when rushing more than 30 times — 5th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .417

Missouri is 2-8 (.200) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2020 season– tied for 6th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .447

Missouri is 3-13 (.188) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2020 season– 7th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .392

Florida: Keys to the Game vs. Missouri

Florida is 1-6 (.100) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities — tied for 8th-worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: .350

Florida is 12-7 (.571) when passing for more than 200 yards since the 2020 season– 10th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .418

Florida is 9-5 (.643) when committing less than 30 yards in penalties since the 2020 season– tied for 9th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .429

Florida is 11-6 (.579) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2020 season– tied for 9th-best among Power 5 Teams; Average: .410

Matchup Notes for Missouri vs. Florida

Florida have just 141.0 receiving yards per game this season — fifth-worst among Power 5 skill players. Missouri’s defense has allowed 235.0 receiving yards per game this season — fourth-worst among SEC defenses.

Florida’s QBs has 1,290 rushing yards since the 2021 season — third-most among FBS teams. Missouri’s defense has allowed 3,468 rushing yards since the 2021 season — most among SEC defenses.

Florida’s QBs has rushed for 1,290 yards on 217 carries (5.9 YPC) since the 2021 season — tied for second-best among FBS teams. Missouri’s defense have allowed 5.1 YPC since the 2021 season — second-worst among SEC defenses.

Missouri’s tight end unit has 3 receptions in 4 games (just 0.8 per game) this season — third-worst among P5 TE corps. Florida’s defense has allowed just 15.7 receptions per game this season — fourth-best among SEC defenses.

Missouri Offensive Stats & Trends

Missouri WRs have averaged a touchdown every 23.2 receptions (255 Rec/11 TDs) since last season– 2nd worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10.7

Missouri’s tight end unit has 3 receptions in 4 games (just 0.8 per game) this season — third-worst among P5 TE corps. Florida’s defense has allowed just 15.7 receptions per game this season — fourth-best among SEC defenses.

Missouri WRs have been targeted 35 times on 3rd down this season– 2nd most among Power 5 Teams

Missouri WRs have averaged a touchdown every 23.2 receptions (255 Rec/11 TDs) since last season– 5th worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.8

Missouri RBs have averaged 1.6 yards from scrimmage per touch (13 yards / 8 touches) on 3rd down this season– 3rd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.6

Florida Offensive Stats & Trends

Florida Skill Players have no touchdowns on 41 receptions this season– tied for worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.2

Florida WRs have no touchdowns on 30 receptions this season– tied for worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 10.6

Florida WRs have no touchdowns on 30 receptions this season– tied for worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.0

Florida Skill Players have no touchdowns on 41 receptions this season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11.2

Florida Skill Players have averaged just 13.7 receptions per game (41/3) this season– 4th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 20.5

Missouri Tigers Defensive Stats & Trends

Missouri has allowed a passer rating of just 46.4 in the Red Zone (9.0 Pass Attempts) this season– 4th best among Power 5 Teams; Average: 148.8

Missouri has allowed 14.3 yards per completion (3,880 yards/272 completions) since last season– 5th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 12.3

Missouri has allowed a passer rating of 177.2 in close and late situations (71.0 Pass Attempts) since last season– 3rd worst in FBS; Average: 125.7

Missouri has allowed 8 TD passes in close and late situations since last season– tied for 5th most in FBS

Missouri’s opponents has not attempted a two-point conversion (69 PATs) since last season– tied for lowest in FBS; Average: 4%

Florida Gators Defensive Stats & Trends

Florida has tackled opponents for a loss on just 10 of 123 rushing attempts (8% TFL%) this season– worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 17%.

Florida’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 27% of PATs this season– tied for 4th highest in FBS; Average: 6%

Florida has tackled opponents for a loss on just 10 of 123 rushing attempts (8% TFL%) this season– 2nd worst in FBS; Average: 16%.

Florida has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 20 of 123 carries (16%) this season– 5th worst among Power 5 Teams; Average: 11%

Florida has allowed first downs on 29% of rush attempts this season– 5th worst in FBS; Average: 22%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.