Regardless of sport, online sports betting markets generally produce a surplus of net losers and a scarcity of net winners. This is as true for bettors as it is for the teams themselves.
If loads of teams regularly covered the spread, all it would take to be a successful bettor would be to identify them and bet them blindly every week.
But betting is rarely this simple, as market forces eventually catch up to successful teams.
Random chance can yield positive ROI over the course of a single month, or even a single season. But when teams can establish a track record of excellent ATS returns over several years, that’s when you’re talking about a special trend that’s worth paying attention to.
In summary: you’ll see a lot fewer teams here, on this list of underrated teams, than you will over on my list of the most overrated college football teams. As a general rule, all of these teams have an ROI of at least 12% in spread markets since 2018, when the U.S. Supreme Court overturned PASPA.
Most Underrated College Football Teams
| Team | ATS Record |
|---|---|
| Kansas State | 44-23-1 |
| Alabama | 42-29 |
| Notre Dame | 41-26-3 |
| Penn State | 40-26-1 |
| Michigan | 40-28-1 |
| Tulane | 40-29 |
| Oklahoma State | 40-29 |
| Utah | 39-26-1 |
| Kentucky | 39-27-1 |
| Virginia | 38-27-1 |
| Washington State | 37-23-1 |
| Miami (OH) | 36-26 |
| San Jose State | 36-25-2 |
College Football Teams Who Consistently Beat the Market Are Incredibly Rare
Over the last six years, about 10% of FBS teams posted 12% betting ROI or greater in the ATS market. Those are the teams listed above.
What’s fascinating about this list is that several of the teams on it are known, public teams. Alabama, Michigan, and Penn State are all extremely popular, public teams that attract a huge volume of betting every week. Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide isn’t sneaking up on anybody, yet they still consistently beat the market. That’s a compliment to the consistency of these top-level programs.
The more prototypical and expected underrated teams on this list are teams like Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oregon State, and Kentucky – teams that have successful head coaches and consistent season-to-season results, yet are overlooked by the media writ large as top programs.
I mean, how many 10-win seasons does Mike Gundy have to produce before we start thinking of him as elite? (For the record, he’s produced eight since 2010.)
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