New Mexico State vs Bowling Green Prediction, Odds, Prop Bets: Quick Lane Bowl

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Dec 16, 2022, 11:05 AM
  • Bowling Green (6-6) are -2.5 point favorites vs New Mexico State (6-6)
  • Total (Over/Under): 48 points
  • Watch the Quick Lane Bowl game on ESPN

The New Mexico State Aggies (6-6) visit Ford Field to take on the Bowling Green Falcons (6-6) on Dec. 26. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:30pm EST in Detroit for the Quick Lane Bowl.

Bowling Green are betting favorites in Week 17, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).

The New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green Over/Under is 48.5 total points.

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New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
New Mexico State+3.5 -11048.5 -110+140
Bowling Green -3.5 -11048.5 -110-165

New Mexico State vs Bowling Green Prediction:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Bowling Green will win this game with 56.6% confidence.

New Mexico State vs Bowling Green Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Bowling Green will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both New Mexico State and Bowling Green, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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  • New Mexico State has hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 4 away games (+11.80 Units / 284% ROI)
  • New Mexico State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.90 Units / 39% ROI)
  • New Mexico State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
  • New Mexico State has hit the Game Total Over in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • New Mexico State have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Bowling Green has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 21 games (+14.15 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Bowling Green has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 15 games (+13.65 Units / 68% ROI)
  • Bowling Green have covered the 1Q Spread in 14 of their last 21 games (+5.75 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Bowling Green has hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+5.05 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Bowling Green has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.35 Units / 23% ROI)

New Mexico State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

New Mexico State has gone 7-5 against the spread this college football season (+1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI).

  • New Mexico State is 6-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.5 Units / 0% ROI
  • New Mexico State is 6-6 when betting the Over for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • New Mexico State is 6-6 when betting the Under for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI

Bowling Green Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Bowling Green has gone 4-7 against the spread this college football season (-3.7 Units / 0% ROI).

  • Bowling Green is 6-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.5 Units / 58.64% ROI
  • Bowling Green is 7-5 when betting the Over for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI
  • Bowling Green is 5-7 when betting the Under for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI

New Mexico State: Keys to the Game vs. Bowling Green

New Mexico State is winless (0-14) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2021 season– worst in FBS; Average: .428

New Mexico State is winless (0-11) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2021 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .439

New Mexico State is winless (0-9) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2021 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .515

New Mexico State is winless (0-10) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2021 season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: .350

Bowling Green: Keys to the Game vs. New Mexico State

Bowling Green is winless (0-2) when not forcing a fumble — tied for worst in FBS; Average: .453

Bowling Green is 7-2 (.778) when in a one score game since the 2021 season– tied for 8th-best in FBS; Average: .494

New Mexico State Offensive Stats & Trends

New Mexico State RBs have averaged just 3.0 Yards per Carry (305 yards/101 carries) in the 4th quarter since last season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.0

New Mexico State WRs have no touchdowns on 3 receptions in the Red Zone this season– tied for 2nd worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 2.0

New Mexico State RBs have averaged 15.2 yards per reception (182 yards/12 catches) this season– 3rd best among FBS Teams; Average: 8.2

New Mexico State Skill Players have averaged just 10.3 receptions per game (93/9) this season– 4th worst among FBS Teams; Average: 19.1

New Mexico State RBs have averaged 3.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (420 yards / 115 touches) in the 4th quarter since last season– tied for 3rd worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.3

Bowling Green Offensive Stats & Trends

Bowling Green RBs have rushed for 2 TDs on 42 carries (21 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 4.7

Bowling Green RBs have rushed for 8 TDs on 90 carries (11.2 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone since last season– 2nd worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 4.7

Bowling Green RBs have rushed for 2 TDs on 245 carries (122.5 Carries Per TD) this season– 2nd worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 21.9

Bowling Green TEs have 21 receptions on 3rd down this season– tied for most among FBS Teams

Bowling Green TEs have been targeted 8.8 times per game (202/23) since last season– tied for 3rd highest among FBS Teams; Average: 4.8

New Mexico State Aggies Defensive Stats & Trends

New Mexico State has allowed first downs on 27% of rush attempts on 3rd and long since last season– 3rd worst in FBS; Average: 15%

New Mexico State has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 84 of 614 attempts (14%) since last season– 5th best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 11%

New Mexico State has allowed just 108.8 receiving yards per game (979/9) to WRs this season– 2nd best in FBS; Average: 165.0

New Mexico State has intercepted 2 of 22 attempts (11.0 pass attempts per int.) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd best among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 36.6

New Mexico State has allowed first downs on 27% of rush attempts on 3rd and long since last season– 2nd worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 15%

Bowling Green Falcons Defensive Stats & Trends

Bowling Green has no interceptions and 17 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since last season– tied for worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 8.7

Bowling Green has no interceptions (65 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since last season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: 37.7

Bowling Green has no interceptions and 17 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since last season– tied for worst in FBS; Average: 9.4

Bowling Green has tackled opponents for a loss on just 3 of 65 rushing attempts (5% TFL%) on 3rd and short since last season– tied for 3rd worst among Non-Power 5 Teams; Average: 11%.

Bowling Green has allowed 7.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (594 yards / 80 touches) on 3rd and short since last season– 4th worst in FBS; Average: 5.0


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.